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Европейское похмелье после Брексита

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Реакция рынков на шок Брексита оказалась сдержанной, если её сравнивать с двумя недавними эпизодами глобальной финансовой волатильности – летом 2015 года (в связи со страхами жёсткого приземления китайской экономики) и в течение двух первых месяцев этого года (из-за возобновления тревог по поводу Китая и ряда других потенциальных глобальных рисков). Этот шок оказался скорее региональным, чем глобальным: наибольший рыночный эффект наблюдался в Великобритании и Европе, при этом волатильность длилась всего около недели, в то время как два предыдущих эпизода серьёзного сброса рискованных активов длились около двух месяца каждый и вызвали резкую коррекцию цен на американские и мировые ценные бумаги.

Почему этот шок оказался таким сдержанным и краткосрочным?

В первую очередь потому, что на долю Великобритании приходится лишь 3% мирового ВВП. А на долю Китая, обладающего второй крупнейшей экономикой мира, приходится 15% мирового ВВП и более половины темпов роста глобальной экономики.

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