Des euro-obligations ou rien

 LONDRES - Les faiblesses institutionnelles de la zone euro ont été mises à nu. La tentative de conduire une politique monétaire commune sans un Trésor commun a échoué. Les investisseurs ne savent pas ce qu'ils achètent quand ils achètent une obligation italienne – a-t-elle ou non l'appui de  l'Allemagne ?

Nous savons maintenant que le meilleur crédit doit répondre du reste, ou bien il enclenche inévitablement des tendances à la baisse, comparables à celles qui ont fait dérailler la Grèce, l'Irlande et le Portugal  - et qui menacent à présent de faire de même en Italie et en Espagne. La mutualisation de la dette ne suffira pas à sauver l'euro, mais sans elle, la zone euro est peu susceptible de survivre intacte.

Le Sommet de la zone euro du 21 juillet a été un petit pas en avant. Les dirigeants ont convenu de taux d'intérêt plus bas sur les prêts consentis par le Fonds Européen de Stabilité Financière (FESF) et ont reconnu insoutenable l'endettement de la Grèce. Mais cela est loin de ce qui est nécessaire pour arrêter une aggravation de la crise de l'union monétaire. Les coûts d'emprunt demeurent excessivement élevés pour de nombreuses économies de la zone euro - et pas seulement pour celles de la périphérie. Les potentiels de croissance économique de  l'Espagne et de l'Italie, par exemple, tournent aujourd'hui autour de 1%, mais leurs coûts d'emprunt dépassent 6%. En revanche, les obligations garanties par l’Etat allemand ont fortement chuté, réduisant les coûts d'emprunt des secteurs publics et privés.

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