欧元债还是分裂?

伦敦——欧元区的制度缺陷已经暴露无遗。试图在缺乏统一财政的情况下实现统一货币政策的努力宣告失败。投资者在购买意大利债券是根本搞不懂自己买入的究竟是什么——德国会为这玩意儿兜底吗?

我们现在知道的是,剩下的国家的信誉不能再受损了,否则的话,恐慌性挤兑——也就是已将希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙拖入万劫不复,如今又在将意大利和西班牙逼上绝路的挤兑——将是不可避免的。光靠债务共同化无法拯救欧元,但如果没有债务共同化,欧元区就不可能完好无损。

7月21日的欧元区峰会朝债务算是迈出了一小步。欧元区领导人同意调低欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF)贷款利率,并认定希腊债务负担为不可持续。但这与解决欧元货币联盟危机深化问题之所需尚相去甚远。许多欧元区经济体——不光是外围国家——的借贷成本仍然维持在不可持续的高水平。比如,西班牙和意大利的经济增长潜力如今在1%徘徊,而其借贷成本已经超过了6%。与此相反,德国主权债务收益率出现了暴跌,拉低了公共和私人部门借贷成本。

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