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O estreito caminho do euro

BERKELEY –  com a vitória de Emmanuel Macron nas eleições presidenciais francesas e a União Democrata Cristã de Angela Merkel a desfrutar de uma vantagem confortável nas sondagens antes das eleições gerais da Alemanha no dia 24 de setembro, abriu-se uma janela para a reforma da zona euro. O euro sempre foi um projeto franco-alemão. Com um novo líder dinâmico num país e um novo mandato popular no outro, há agora uma oportunidade para a França e a Alemanha corrigirem as piores falhas da sua criação.

Mas os dois lados continuam profundamente divididos. Macron, numa longa tradição francesa, insiste que a união monetária sofre de muito pouca centralização. Alega que a zona euro precisa do seu próprio ministro das finanças e do seu próprio parlamento. Precisa de um orçamento de centenas de milhares de milhões de euros para subscrever projetos de investimento e aumentar gastos em países com elevados níveis de desemprego.

Merkel, por outro lado, considera que o problema da união monetária tem muita centralização e pouca responsabilidade nacional. Ela preocupa-se com o facto de que um orçamento elevado da zona euro não seja gasto de forma responsável. Embora não se oponha a um ministro das finanças da zona euro, ela não prevê que ele venha a ter poderes abrangentes.

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