¿Cuánto más va a bajar el euro?

LONDRES – Casi a diario, el dólar estadounidense alcanza nuevos máximos en 12 años, mientras que el euro parece destinado a caer por debajo de la paridad. Se suele decir de los movimientos de divisas que son la más impredecible de las variables financieras, pero por una vez los acontecimientos recientes en estos mercados parecen tener una explicación bastante clara, aceptada y respaldada por casi todos los economistas y responsables políticos.

Por ejemplo, el presidente francés François Hollande ha saludado con entusiasmo la baja del euro: “Hace que las cosas sean claras y directas: un euro equivale a un dólar”, señaló ante un público de industriales. Pero precisamente cuando todo parece “claro y directo” los inversionistas harían bien en cuestionar la visión convencional. Ciertamente, en 2015 parece una apuesta popular prever un dólar fuerte y un euro débil. Sin embargo, ¿puede ser que esta tendencia ya se esté sobredimensionando?

No hay duda de que, en un sentido, la explicación convencional de la relación reciente entre el euro y el dólar es correcta. Está claro que la principal fuerza que la impulsa es la divergencia monetaria, con la política restrictiva de la Reserva Federal y la política del Banco Central Europeo de mantener tipos de interés históricamente bajos y adoptar la expansión cuantitativa. ¿Pero en qué medida ya se ha cubierto esta divergencia? La respuesta depende de cuánta gente desconozca el diferencial de los tipos de interés o no crea que se vaya a ampliar demasiado.

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