Quanto potrà durare ancora la caduta dell'euro?

LONDRA – Quasi ogni giorno il dollaro statunitense tocca nuovi livelli massimi da dodici anni, mentre l'euro sembra precipitare sotto la soglia di parità con il biglietto verde. I movimenti valutari sono spesso descritti come la più imprevedibile delle variabili finanziarie, ma di recente alcuni eventi sui mercati del cambio sembrano avere, per una volta, una spiegazione abbastanza ovvia, che è accettata, nonché avallata, dalla maggioranza degli economisti e dei policy maker.

Il presidente francese François Hollande ha salutato con gioia la discesa dell'euro “perché rende tutto più chiaro e preciso: un euro equivale a un dollaro", ha detto a una platea di industriali. Ma è proprio quando le cose appaiono "chiare e precise" che gli investitori dovrebbero mettere in dubbio il pensiero tradizionale. Il binomio dollaro forte-euro debole è certamente la scommessa del 2015 che va per la maggiore. C'è, dunque, il rischio che il tasso di cambio stia già superando il valore di lungo periodo?

In un certo senso, la spiegazione tradizionale del recente movimento del cambio euro/dollaro è corretta. Il principale motore è stato, senza dubbio, la divergenza monetaria, con la politica rigorista della Federal Reserve da un lato, e i tassi di interesse ai minimi storici e il quantitative easing della Banca centrale europea dall'altro. Ma quanto di questa divergenza è già stato calcolato? La risposta dipende dal numero di coloro che ignorano il differenziale tra i tassi di interesse, oppure non credono che aumenterà di molto.

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