Jusqu'où l'euro va-t-il chuter ?

Mar 17, 2015 Anatole Kaletsky

LONDRES – Quasiment chaque jour, le dollar américain atteint de nouveaux sommets par rapport aux 12 années passées, tandis que l'euro semble plonger inexorablement en-deçà de la parité avec le dollar. Les effets de change sont souvent décrits comme les plus imprévisibles de toutes les variables financières. Mais les événements récents sur les marchés des changes semblent pour une fois fournir une explication assez évidente, une explication que presque tous les économistes et décideurs acceptent et reprennent à leur compte.

D'une part, le président français François Hollande a accueilli avec une grande joie la forte baisse de l'euro : « Cela permet d'avoir les idées claires : un euro égale un dollar » a déclaré François Hollande devant une assemblée d'industriels. Mais c'est précisément en ayant « les idées claires » que les investisseurs doivent remettre en question l'opinion commune. Un dollar fort contre un euro faible est certainement le pari le plus répandu en 2015. Y a-t-il donc une chance pour que la tendance des taux de change soit déjà exagérée ?

En un sens, l'explication classique du récent mouvement de l'euro par rapport au dollar est sûrement correcte. Le principal facteur a clairement été la divergence monétaire, avec le durcissement de la politique de la Réserve fédérale et de la Banque centrale européenne visant à maintenir des taux d'intérêt extrêmement bas et à lancer des mesures d'assouplissement quantitatif. Mais à quel point cette divergence est-elle déjà intégrée ? La réponse dépend du nombre de personnes qui ignorent l'écart du taux d'intérêt, ou bien qui ne croient pas que cet écart puisse se creuser bien davantage.

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Anatole Kaletsky

Writing for PS since 1995
75 Commentaries

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy in the Aftermath of Crisis, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

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Jonathan Lam Mar 19, 2015

Gamesmith94134: How Far Will the Euro Fall?
Ever since the oil glut, the global economy is exposing to a fresh trend in the moderate inflation in the emerging market nations even in China. Dollar is hitting 12 high and everyone else is falling below dollar parity; and many economies are slowing down both with inflation and productivity.
After Reuter’JP Morgan analysts’ reports,
JPMorgan analysts wrote: "The ECB not only creates scarcity of one form of collateral versus another but it also creates shortage of collateral by replacing high efficiency government bond collateral with lower efficiency cash collateral."
Does it make strike the balance to invest in Europe if it was cheaper than US asset? I don’t think so if the both markets are already saturated in their load of cash; if they wait on the relief from the depreciated currencies of their own under the current exchange. Since many growing economies have inflation and higher payload of interest rate, they would rather sustain the current growth rate and interest rate.
As IMF predicts the trade deficit on US and EU are $483 and about 262 billion Euro respectively; and it is questionable if euro would bounce back at even dollar exchange.
Since the developed nations is in the depreciation cycle or Japanifciation that made the interest rate the equalizer in the exchange system that many cut their interest rates to devalue their currencies in the Emerging Market system to yield competitive shares of the current market or halt buying equity capitals US and Europe to void further exposure to dollar-euro scheme.
Perhaps, it is why the FED is contemplating on raising its interest rate on the high ground that may create the spiral effect to the change that cause the run off, or the bull run may eating the profits alive or the demand of another securer bond. Many all clearly understand housing equity had maxed, and the renter scheme is no longer sustainable. It gave the Bull Run from 16000 to 18000 in DJ, so, they munched on its dividends than bought more bonds or stopped buying houses months ago. At some extend both dollar and euro will fall till the stock market collapse or implosion of the bankruptcy to the rising cost of living since the imbalance of trade deficit and inequality of redistribution approaches.
Perhaps, there are imminent threats on “Grexit” and other that depend on the troika to run their reforms internally; instead of estimate the shrinkage of the Euro; they would be better off to gain on their value of their currencies. As for American, it is value versus volume; that rising interest rate can save Euro bond from negativity and give more breathing room on the exchange system. Gradually, it will benefit many currencies with more appropriate interest rate without cutting it further in their currency war.
“Patient” is not a question, but how balance is……….
May the Buddha bless you?
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A P Mar 17, 2015

A 5th factor that could push the Euro the "other way" is that hedge funds have a very heavy position in the short Euro trade. When those folks return to a neutral position, there will be buying pressure on the Euro vs the $.
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hari naidu Mar 17, 2015

I agree with your final argument principally because Draghi (ECB) reported (yesterday) that EU growth is finally picking up....Which may imply financial markets will push Euro back to 1.40 or so to USD.
However what happens should Grexit manifest itself already next month (Apr)? What impact will its 2% share of EU GDP have if it withdraws or defaults? Berlin is not afraid of Grexit but Juncker has already declared Commission's policy stand to avoid Grexit - at any cost!
Don't buy bonds!
- alan smith Mar 21, 2015
  
  Agree,people invested in bonds via "balanced funds"have no idea how much risk they are carrying.
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