欧元会跌多少?

伦敦—美元几乎每天都在创造12年新高,而欧元则在通往低于美元平价的道路上越走越远。货币波动常常被称为最不可预测的金融变量;但最近的外汇市场似乎表明,这一次存在显而易见的解释,一个几乎所有经济学家和决策者都会接受并支持的解释。

比如,法国总统奥朗德热烈欢迎欧元贬值:“这让形势变得方便又清楚:一欧元等于一美元,” 他对业界人士说。但当形势“方便又清楚”时,投资者就应该质疑传统智慧了。强势美元和弱势欧元显然是2015年最流行的预测。因此,是否有可能汇率趋势已经处于超调阶段?

从某种角度,对近期欧元-美元波动的传统解释毫无疑问是正确的。主要驱动力显然是货币分化,美联储在收紧政策,而欧洲央行维持极低利率并启动量化宽松。但这一分化在多大程度上已经体现在价格中?答案取决于多少人或者不了解利差,或者不相信利差会大幅扩大。

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