Denaro Facile in Europa: Fine dei Giochi

MONACO – L’euro ha comportato per l’Europa una crisi della bilancia di pagamento, così come era avvenuto con il gold standard negli anni venti. In realtà, c’è soltanto una differenza tra i due eventi: nel corso della crisi attuale, si sono resi disponibili enormi pacchetti di salvataggio internazionali.

Questi pacchetti di salvataggio hanno attenuato le difficoltà finanziarie della zona euro, ma ad un costo elevato. Essi non hanno soltanto consentito agli investitori di evitare di pagare per le loro misere decisioni; hanno anche dato la possibilità ai paesi dell’Europa meridionale, troppo dispendiosi, di rinviare una svalutazione in termini reali sotto forma di riduzione dei prezzi relativi dei beni. Tale misura è necessaria per ripristinare la competitività distrutta negli anni iniziali dell’euro, allorché ha causato un’inflazione eccessiva.

Infatti, per paesi come Grecia, Portogallo, o Spagna, il recupero della competitività richiederebbe un abbassamento dei prezzi dei loro prodotti rispetto al resto della zona euro di circa il 30%, in riferimento all’inizio della crisi. In Italia c’è probabilmente la necessità di ridurre i prezzi relativi del 10-15%. Ma finora, Portogallo ed Italia non hanno dato prova di nessuna “svalutazione reale” di questo tipo, mentre in Grecia e Spagna i prezzi relativi sono diminuiti rispettivamente solo dell’8% e del 6%.

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