Die letzte Chance

MÜNCHEN – In den inflationären Kreditblasen, die der Euro erzeugte, wurden die südeuropäischen Krisenländer viel zu teuer. Um wieder wettbewerbsfähig zu werden, müssen Länder wie Griechenland, Spanien oder Portugal die Preise für ihre eigenen Güter relativ zum Rest der Eurozone und im Vergleich zum Krisenbeginn um ca. 30% verringern. Italien muss vermutlich 10 bis 15% billiger werden. Tatsächlich haben sich Portugal und Italien einer solchen “realen Abwertung” bislang vollständig verweigert, und in Griechenland und Spanien gingen die relativen Preise nur um 8% bzw. um 6% zurück.

Unter den Krisenländern hat allein Irland die Kurve gekriegt, weil seine Blase schon Ende 2006 platzte, als es noch keine Rettungsschirme gab. Da keiner half, schnallte man den Gürtel enger und senkte die relativen Güterpreise um 13%. Die Rosskur hat dem Land inzwischen einen Superboom verschafft.

Relativ gesehen erhielt Griechenland die meisten Rettungsgelder und wies den größten Zuwachs der Arbeitslosigkeit auf. Die öffentlichen Kredite, die das Land vom EZB-System und der Staatengemeinschaft bekam, haben sich in den letzten fünf Jahren von 53 Mrd. Euro (Februar 2010) auf mittlerweile 324 Mrd. Euro oder 181% des BIP bald versechsfacht, und die Arbeitslosigkeit hat sich von 11% auf 26% mehr als verdoppelt.

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