欧洲的货币宽松终局

慕尼黑—欧元给欧洲带来了一场收支平衡危机,一如20世纪20年代的金本位。事实上,这两场危机只有一个区别:在今天的危机中,你可以获得大量国际援助。

这些援助计划减轻了欧元区的金融压力,但代价是高昂的。不但投资者避免了为糟糕决策买单,定价过高的南欧国家也获得了推迟实际贬值(通过降低商品的相对价格实现)的机会。这对于重建在欧元最初几年中因为使用欧元导致过度通胀而失去的竞争力来说是必不可少的。

事实上,对希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙等国来说,重获竞争力需要降低本国产品相对于欧元区其他国家的价格,降幅(较危机开始时)应达到30%左右。意大利可能需要让相对价格降低10—15%。但葡萄牙和意大利目前都没有发生任何“实际贬值”,而希腊和西班牙的相对价格分别只下降了8%和6%。

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