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Orientações estratégicas para a Europa

Nov 12, 2021 Josep Borrell

BRUXELAS – Para nos ajudar a encontrar o caminho, precisamos de orientações, e as orientações estratégicas (a chamada "bússola estratégica") que preparei a pedido do Conselho Europeu servirão de guia operacional para o desenvolvimento e a tomada de decisões da União Europeia em matéria de segurança e defesa. O documento está agora a ser transmitido aos ministros dos Negócios Estrangeiros e da Defesa da UE, tendo em vista os debates da próxima semana.

As orientações foram concebidas para responder a três perguntas: quais são os desafios e ameaças que enfrentamos? Como podemos agrupar melhor os nossos ativos e geri‑los de forma eficaz? Qual é a melhor forma de projetar a influência da Europa enquanto interveniente regional e mundial?

A nossa análise geral da ameaça indica claramente que a Europa está em perigo. A UE corre o risco de sofrer aquilo a que já chamei a "contração estratégica". Esta apreciação pode ser vista de três perspetivas. Em primeiro lugar, o nosso alcance económico está a ficar cada vez mais circunscrito. Há trinta anos, a UE representava um quarto da riqueza mundial; daqui a vinte anos, representará pouco mais de 10 %. A nossa contração demográfica evolui em moldes semelhantes: no final deste século, a Europa representará menos de 5 % da população mundial.

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Adrian Haxhiaj Nov 14, 2021

EU should rethink to reevaluate its values and decide the price for Machiavelism. Further, it is time to push the strategy of one voice and unanimous decisions especially when it comes to international conflicts. Last, but not least, the EU should think twice when flirting with Russia and China and find a way to penalise its members who since years are waking up in the morning in the bed of those two "democracies"
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Henk Crop Nov 13, 2021

Good article. A Strategic Compass is what the EU badly needs. The EU has expanded extensively over the past decades. They want to become big is the only object they agree upon. But as an organization it is an ongoing fight between the members and Brussel. Brussel which has an insatiable lust to gain power over the members.
In the process there is little attention for developments outside the EU borders.

Major development is the exploding population growth outside the EU.
The world population is growing from 8 to 10 billion.
This is concentrated in Sub-Sahara Africa, Central - Southern Asia and Northern Afrika -
Western Asia. ( UN. World Population Prospects 2109 - Data Booklet)
In ca. 30 years the population in these areas will grow to 2,5 + 2,0 + 0,6 = 5,1 billion.
The EU will then have only 0,6 billion.
The economies in these area do not expand enough to provide enough prospects for their young people. This leads to wars and migration.
Afrika is the only Continent with a rapidly increasing number young people ( 226 million in 2015). ( www.unpopulation.org, no 2015 ).
The EU is completely unprepared to absorb migrants on a massive scale. The cost of one immigrant is ca. Euro 167.000.-
While Africa is 7 times the area of the EU, they keep coming to the EU.

The EU laws are completely inadequate to protect the EU from mass migration.
They cannot be changed because they are based on the EU values.
At the same time the EU has a birthrate of 1,33 child per woman. For a sustainable population you need 2,1. In Africa that goes up to 7.

It is good to write an EU compass. I hope some more articles will follow.
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