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¿Puede Europa evitar una guerra entre Estados Unidos y China?

Dec 28, 2021 Robert Williams , Moritz Rudolf

NEW HAVEN – Los países europeos están divididos respecto de si se unirán al boicot diplomático a las próximas Olimpíadas de Invierno en Beijing convocado por el presidente estadounidense Joe Biden. El hecho es otra demostración de que en lo que atañe a la relación con China, Europa y Estados Unidos están realmente a un océano de distancia.

Además de compartir valores políticos fundamentales, Estados Unidos y Europa suelen usar una retórica similar para referirse al reto que plantea China al orden internacional. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los gobiernos europeos no pueden compatibilizar sus intereses con la idea de una coalición de democracias liderada por Estados Unidos que haga frente a las autocracias del mundo; y los funcionarios europeos se oponen a una política para China centrada en la contención disfrazada de competencia.

Aunque la Unión Europea quiere profundizar la cooperación transatlántica, no hay consenso respecto de cómo hacerlo sin desairar a China o debilitar el sistema internacional mismo que se busca defender. Los gobiernos europeos tampoco están convencidos de que Estados Unidos sea un socio fiable. Por más que Biden valore la relación transatlántica, no sucedía lo mismo con su predecesor Donald Trump. ¿Quién puede predecir lo que hará el próximo presidente de los Estados Unidos (tal vez el mismo Trump)? Esta duda es uno de los principales motivos del interés de la UE en poner en práctica su idea de una «autonomía estratégica».

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Robert Williams

Writing for PS since 2021
1 Commentary

Robert Williams, Executive Director of the Paul Tsai China Center and a senior research scholar and lecturer at Yale Law School, is a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a contributing editor at Lawfare.

Moritz Rudolf

Writing for PS since 2021
1 Commentary

Moritz Rudolf, a postdoctoral fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, is the author of The Belt and Road Initiative: Implications for the International Order (WSPC, 2021).

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lt lee Dec 29, 2021

Regarding whether European nations should join the anti-China camp, one important issue to be considered is whether the US could avoid serious internal disturbance in the near future.
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Paul Friesen Dec 28, 2021

The "west" in general, and the U.S. in particular, seem to have a hard time accepting the industrialization of China. This industrialization has lifted millions out of poverty. It is a great step in the reduction of world inequality, and should be celebrated for that. Yet we seem committed to making all sorts of ultimately futile efforts to block it, like the war of the west on Huawei.

As China industrializes, tensions are rising due to its increasing wealth and power. I certainly view some of the concerns about China as legitimate. Its treatment of the Uighurs certainly concerns me, and I support the right of the people of Taiwan to decide their own future. But is Chinese behaviour in these areas really more reprehensible than the invasion of Iraq, for example, or the attempts to economically stifle countries like Cuba and Iran?

China's huge population means that, once it is fully industrialized, it will be the most powerful country in the world, displacing the U.S. I, for one, see no particular reason to think that it will abuse that power any more than the U.S. has done. We need to get used to the idea. I can understand that many in the U.S. would wish to resist this, but such resistance could easily lead to war, and the U.S. would lose, probably after huge destruction and many deaths. People in the U.S. need to understand that the worth of countries does not come from their ability to dominate others, but from their ability to provide a good life for their citizens. You do not need to dominate the world.
- lt lee Dec 29, 2021
  
  China and the West have different emotional regime regarding government leaders. Because of historical experience, Chinese people, in general, tend to treat their government leaders with more respect and trust until prove otherwise. And Western leaders less. Because of the difference, Western hostility toward Chinese government reflects Western mistrust and/or Western superiority toward the Chinese people.
  
  Otherwise, a lot of accusations against the PRC such as restriciting free speech makes little sense. Constant up and down communication is invariably the the foundation of good governance. If some Westerners believe that CCP dominated Chinese leaders could successfully govern a nation of more than 1 billion people successfully for decades, they certainly have more faith in the CCP than most Chinese.
  - Paul Friesen Dec 30, 2021
    
    I must confess that I do not feel I have a good sense of how China's government works. Most writing on the subject comes across as propaganda, either for or against China. Neither sort of propaganda is very helpful for coming to a reasonable conclusion about just how responsive this system is to the needs of the people it governs. I also wonder how susceptible this system is to being taken over by a small group, either ideologically focused or intent on enriching themselves. I don't have any clear sense of what checks there might be to prevent that.
    
    I have observed that this system has actually worked very well in two recent crises. After the 2008 financial crisis, the Chinese government was the only government in the world that responded really logically, with a massive, rapid stimulus that got the economy back to full employment quickly. No other government responded adequately, resulting in years of unnecessary unemployment. And while China was apparently the source of COVID 19, and while it could be argued that this was the result of lax governance, China has also been one of the most effective countries at controlling the disease.
    - lt lee Dec 30, 2021
      
      One way to cut through the propaganda. Which side assumes average people of the others are dumb or totally incapable?
      
      If the Chinese government violates Chinese people's human rights all the time as depicted in Western media, would they still respect and trust the Chinese government unless they are dumb?
      
      I am not saying people do not do dumb thing. They did and they will continue to do so from time to time. But not for several decades continuously.
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