2015 – das Jahr der Rückkehr der Eurokrise?

BERLIN – Die Eurokrise scheint vorbei zu sein. Zumindest haben sich die Finanzmärkte beruhigt, auch wenn die Wirtschaft in den südlichen Krisenländern der EU nach wie vor darniederliegt. Die gesamte Eurozone leidet unter einem faktisch nicht oder kaum vorhandenen Wachstum, Deflation statt Inflation und in den Krisenländern an einer anhaltend sehr hohen Arbeitslosigkeit.

Es kann daher kaum verwundern, dass angesichts der offensichtlichen Unfähigkeit der Eurogruppe, die jahrelange Krise zu beenden oder wenigstens jenseits ritueller Sparappelle und einer harten Austeritätspolitik so etwas wie eine Wachstumsperspektive zu eröffnen, in vielen Mitgliedstaaten der EU die Geduld mit der Austeritätspolitik zu Ende geht und aus dem politischen Raum großes Unheil droht.

Der Auslöser kann erneut Griechenland werden, denn wenn es dort nicht gelingt, in den kommenden Tagen einen Präsidenten im Parlament mit Zweidrittelmehrheit zu wählen, dann wird das Parlament aufgelöst und es finden Neuwahlen statt – mit dem hohen Risiko, dass dann die Linksozialisten von der Syrizapartei gewählt werden. Syriza müsste entweder einen gigantischen Wahlbetrug begehen oder wird mindestens auf einer Neuverhandlung der Rückzahlungsbedingungen mit der Troika (EU, EZB und IWF) bestehen und, falls diese scheitern, einseitige Konsequenzen ziehen müssen.

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