2015, l'année de tous les dangers pour l'Europe

BERLIN – On nous dit que la crise de l'euro est derrière nous. Les marchés financiers ont retrouvé le calme, tandis que les autorités européennes, notamment la BCE, assurent que l'union monétaire est sauvée. Mais les pays du sud de l'Europe restent en dépression, la zone euro dans son ensemble souffre d'une croissance atone, elle est soumise à des pressions déflationnistes et dans les pays en crise, le chômage reste à un niveau insupportable.

Etant donné l'incapacité manifeste des autorités européennes à mettre fin au malaise, beaucoup de pays membres ne supportent plus l'austérité. Certains d'entre eux sont confrontés à un soulèvement politique.

Une nouvelle crise pourrait être déclenchée (comme pour la crise de l'euro) par la Grèce où a lieu une élection présidentielle qui ne parviendra peut-être pas à faire émerger un gagnant. Si le Parlement grec n'élit pas un président avec une majorité des deux-tiers lors du troisième et dernier tour cette semaine, il sera dissout et il y aura des élections anticipées. Le risque est de voir Syriza, un parti socialiste d'extrême-gauche, arriver au pouvoir.

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