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Economics

أوروبا بحاجة الى إطار مالي جديد

Apr 29, 2021 Jean Pisani-Ferry

باريس- في منتصف ثمانينات القرن الماضي سبع دول فقط كان لديها قواعد مالية وفي سنة 2015 وطبقا لآخر إحصاء لصندوق النقد الدولي 96 دولة كان لديها مثل تلك القواعد المالية ومعظم تلك الدول لديها احكام تحد من الدين العام أو العجز بالميزانية أو كلاهما وبعضها لديه قواعد تتعلق بالإنفاق العام.

يعود هذا التقييد للسلطة التقديرية المالية في جزء منه كرد فعل على التجارب المؤلمة مثل "العقد الضائع" في أمريكا اللاتينية بعد أزمات الدين في ثمانينات القرن الماضي والتعديل المؤلم الذي عانت منه البلدان التي تفاجأت بارتفاع أسعار الفائدة في أوائل تسعينيات القرن الماضي وأزمة الدين السيادي الأوروبي في السنوات بين 2010 و2012 ولكن تبني القواعد المالية يرجع أيضا الى تزايد عدم الثقة في النشاط المالي.

لقد عكس جون ب تايلور من جامعة ستانفورد في سنة 2000 الروح السائدة آنذاك عندما كتب ان " من الأفضل ترك السياسة المالية بحيث يكون لها تأثيرها الرئيسي المعاكس للدورة الاقتصادية من خلال أدوات الاستقرار التلقائية." أي بعبارة أخرى ان نشغل السياسة المالية على وضعية الطيار الآلي. لقد كان الاجماع آنذاك ان السياسة النقدية هي أداة سياسية أكثر رشاقة وفعالية بسبب ان القرارات الرئيسية يتم اتخاذها من قبل بنك مركزي مستقل ويتم تنفيذها بجرة قلم.

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Pierre Bezukhov Apr 30, 2021

The problem of any household or country is that its wishes are greater than its means. Instead of finding a balance, one looks for a way out in debt. The interest on debt is normally a way of controlling its size and balancing debt with means. However, if one brings the interest on debt to less than 0, there is no stabilizer and debt can become completely out of balance with the means. One then ends up in a Ponzi scheme construction. Old debts need to be refinanced and new growing debts are permanently needed to bridge the existing gap between wishes and means. The system becomes unstable and any event can make it implode. In retrospect, the economists will be able to explain that the excessive debt caused the problem. However, if they had looked at the 5,000-year history of debt, they should have known how each cycle of debt ends beforehand. The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak. And so the same cycle repeats itself endless through human history. Its root cause is just human weakness not to limit its wished to its means. No complicated theoretical insights are needed. Just general knowledge of the history of debt. It is not different this time.
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David Punabantu Apr 30, 2021

The problem with fiscal space within the European Union (EU) is two fold. Understanding the EU predicament is seen firstly in the defunct Sterling Area. In 1949, Britain devalued the pound sterling by thirty percent. This was a major world economic event given that the pound was and still is one of the major currencies in the world. In fact, nine other countries followed suit then. They were Australia, India, South Africa, New Zealand, Eire, Denmark, Norway, Egypt, and Israel. Interestingly, several among those who devalued were former British colonies. They devalued by a similar margin as if their economies had the same posture of the British economy including having the same financial muscle. In reality the effect of the devaluation was much greater in India, Norway, Denmark etc as their economies had to absorb more liabilities greater than the 30 percent. This is the same crisis the Euro and the EU is facing. The German economy cannot be compared to the smaller EU states that cannot fully absorb changes on the EU as Germany can, hence Germany gets richer at the expense of other EU states that are driven into poverty and debt.
The second factor is taxes. It is common practice for Finance Minister's to announce that a budget is "X" amount of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For example the budget can be 40 percent of the GDP over a calender year. Assuming 12 months make up a calender year and taxes collected every month then a tax rate of 3.3 percent per month should collect 40 percent of the GDP within a calender year leaving 60 percent of the GDP for the private sector and the populous.
If taxes reach 8.3 percent per month then in a calender year it would mean 100 percent of the GDP value would have been consumed by the State leaving nothing for its private sector and citizens in value terms of the GDP.
The reality on the ground is taxes are above 8.3 percent. As taxes are above the 8 percent threshold, the government will collect the budget, spend it, re collect it, spend it, recollect it, spend it in a cyclical pattern many times in a single budget year. In effect it will be like Keynesian economics and the printing of money except instead of printing physically, the printing is done by recycling it. Taxes thus become compounded. Government tax at 30 percent in the first cyclical would extract that value leaving 70 percent. Then in the next cycle extract another 30 percent leaving 40 percent. The next 30 percent extraction in real terms is facing 40 percent left of the economy and in real value terms is 70 plus percent. Once all the value is extracted of savings, investments of ordinary people the whole nation government borrows against a "fiscal and economic crisis" manifesting as debt.
Once all the GDP is consumed by the fourth cycle the economy enters the informal phase manifesting as an informal sector as it shifts from the formal phase, the formal sector. Like E=mc2 meaning half matter half wave, the economy is half formal and half informal. Collecting taxes in the informal zone is like trying to stop "light" because the properties of the economy have changed and so have the rules. A calender year representing a budget becomes obsolete if taxes exceed 8.3 percent and this changes the fundamental properties of an economy and its behaviour bringing about human made fiscal challenges.
A government could have a 3 day economic year as taxes are high and by 60 days spent the entire value of the GDP. Citizens and firms experience increasing economic debt and hardship as the purchasing power of money dissolves and the main fact is that what had to be done in 365 days had to be done in 3 days. The end result debt and socio-economic choas, social unrest as it is an impossible task to do what is meant to be done in 365 days be done in 3 days. This consumption of value by the State undermines the social contract and society breaks down at trigger point events in which societies frustration with the system is expressed.
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أوروبا بحاجة الى إطار مالي جديد

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