eurozone sign Medé Libé/Flickr

¿Son innecesarios los objetivos de déficit de Europa?

BRUSELAS – En los últimos años, las reglas fiscales de la Unión Europea han experimentado algunas mejoras muy necesarias; sin embargo, aún queda mucho por hacer. Además de sufrir de carencia de claridad en asuntos clave, la política fiscal de la UE continúa centrándose excesivamente  en objetivos a corto plazo, lo que se refleja en el énfasis innecesario que otorga dicha política a los objetivos de déficit nominales dentro de los ciclos presupuestarios anuales.

Sin duda, todos los países de la UE tienen un verdadero interés en la sostenibilidad fiscal de los otros países miembros. Pero, los déficits anuales son deficientes pronosticadores de la probabilidad de que un miembro llegue a tener que pagar la deuda de otro. Es útil el hecho de que ahora puede invocarse la existencia de circunstancias excepcionales para distribuir la carga que conlleva cualquier ajuste necesario que se extiende durante un período superior a un año. Sin embargo, no se elimina el sesgo de corto plazo incorporado en las reglas fiscales de la UE.

En un mercado plenamente integrado, la financiación anual de los déficits gubernamentales no debería ser un problema, siempre y cuando el saldo de la deuda sea sostenible. Es por ello que la UE debería esforzarse para crear un marco fiscal que tenga como único objetivo garantizar que las deudas de sus miembros sean sostenibles. Por definición, este objetivo sería específico para cada país. No requeriría que se alcance un déficit global por debajo del 3% del PIB cada año, en todos y cada uno de los países. Pero, sí se necesitaría un marco analítico más sofisticado que el actual, que únicamente clasifica a los países sobre la base de su cumplimiento del techo de deuda pública del 60% del PIB estipulado por la UE.

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