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أوروبا يجب أن تكون قوة مناخية عالمية

Jan 22, 2021 Josep Borrell , Werner Hoyer

بروكسل ــ بكل حماس ولهفة، يراقب العالم طرح لقاحات مرض فيروس كورونا 2019 (كوفيد-19) ويتطلع إلى العودة إلى الحياة الطبيعية بعد عام من الإغلاق. ولكن هناك خطر آخر داهم يهدد البشرية ولن نجد له لقاح أبدا: تغير المناخ.

كانت الصور المروعة لحرائق الغابات في كاليفورنيا والفيضانات المدمرة في بنجلاديش نذيرا لنا بما ينتظرنا إذا فشلنا في معالجة الأزمة المناخية. وفي غياب تحرك حاسم، ستتوالى مثل هذه الكوارث بشكل أكثر تكرارا وتدميرا. علاوة على ذلك، يُـعَـد تغير المناخ واحدا من أكبر التحديات الجيوسياسية التي تواجهنا. إذ يتسبب تغير المناخ في استفحال الصراعات من خلال تغذية عدم الاستقرار السياسي والاجتماعي، ويخلق ضغوطا تدفع الناس إلى الهجرة، في حين يؤدي إلى تفاقم الظلم العالمي ويعرض حقوق الإنسان والسلام للخطر، وخاصة في الدول الهشة.

أوضح العلماء أن تحقيق هدف الحد من ارتفاع متوسط درجات الحرارة العالمية بما لا يتجاوز 1.5 درجة مئوية فوق مستويات ما قبل الصناعة ــ وهو الهدف الذي حدده اتفاق باريس ــ يعني أن العالم لا يستطيع أن يطلق من ثاني أكسيد الكربون أكثر من 580 جيجا طن أخرى. هذه هي ميزانيتنا الكربونية ــ إلى الأبد. ومع ذلك، بمعدل الانبعاثات العالمية الحالي الذي يبلغ نحو 37 جيجا طن سنويا، سنستنفد ميزانيتنا بحلول عام 2035. لهذا، يتعين علينا أن نعمل على إزالة الكربون دون إبطاء. ولأن درجات الحرارة العالمية ارتفعت بالفعل بنحو 1.1 درجة مئوية، مع ارتفاع درجات الحرارة في العديد من المناطق إلى مستويات أعلى كثيرا، فإن السنوات العشر المقبلة تمثل الفرصة الأخيرة المتاحة لنا لمعالجة المشكلة.

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Josep Borrell

Writing for PS since 2020
9 Commentaries

Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, is Vice President of the European Commission for a Stronger Europe in the World.

Werner Hoyer

Writing for PS since 2017
6 Commentaries

Werner Hoyer is President of the European Investment Bank.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 9 Comments on this article

Rajiv Chopra Jan 25, 2021

I live in India. We need to grow.
Furthermore, I live in Delhi, which is one of the most polluted cities in the world.

The summers have become hotter, and the winters have disappeared. So has the winter fog.

We've been talking, in my family, about leaving Delhi eventually. So, I have never understood the logic of growth at the expense of the environment. Climate change does not care about Paris, or Trump, or Biden...
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Prashant Kotak Jan 25, 2021

If ever there was paragraph that defined delusion on stilts, this is it.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Peter Schaeffer Jan 24, 2021

What this article really shows is that Colonialist mindset lives on, on the Left that is. The rest of the world doesn't care about Europe. The age of European domination of the world is over (although the Left in Europe doesn't get it).
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Peter Schaeffer Jan 22, 2021

How foolish can you get. Europe can only make itself globally irrelevant by hyping agreements that will accomplish nothing (i.e. the Paris accord). Here are the hard truths. Global CO2 emissions have soared since 2000 and will probably continue to rise. China is (by far) the largest emitter of CO2. China emits more CO2 than the US and Europe combined. China is only mentioned once in the article (as the builder of coal-fired power plants). How irrelevant can you get?
- Susan Robinson Jan 24, 2021
  
  For CO2 emissions, here are CO2 emissions (in tons per capita) for some countries:
  Australia = 16.8, US = 16.1, Canada =16.1, South Korea = 13.6, Russia =12.1, Japan = 9.4, China = 8.0
  
  Every nation (especially poor nations) has every right to develop its economy to lift millions and millions of people out of poverty and hunger.
  
  There are many global problems (climate change, etc.) that need all countries accepting and respecting each other's system of government, and focus on cooperation and areas of global agreement that can be reached, we need all countries to work cooperatively to solve the global problems.
  
  Since 1978, China has a series of far-reaching market-economy reforms, China no longer follows communist command economic system and the bulk of China’s astonishing growth has come through the liberalization of its private sector.
  
  The 3 sources of long-term economic growth are physical capital, human capital, and technological progress, so encouraging and facilitating these 3 sources are a high priority.
  
  China’s economy has grown faster for longer than any other country on record (averaging almost 10 percent a year since 1978). China’s growth rate has slowed down since its peak some years ago but China has continued making an outsize contribution to powering global economic expansion and has reduced poverty in this process. China has generated almost one-third of total global growth since the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
  
  China is learning/ emulating other countries (like Singapore, South Korea) to embark on economic developments, build infrastructure, develop human capital, create jobs... not communist command economic system anymore...
  
  Given China's enormous size and complexities, China is doing many things right that have brought peace and prosperity to hundreds and hundreds of millions of people.
  
  US per capita GDP = 65000 USD, China per capita GDP = 10000 USD, so you can see the very large gap that China is lagging behind....
  
  With hundreds and hundreds of millions of people living in poverty for so many decades, China desperately wants to learn/ emulate other countries (like Singapore, South Korea) to embark on sustainable economic developments, build infrastructure, develop human capital, create jobs, continuously to increase productivity to lift these hundreds and hundreds of millions of people out of poverty....so, you can see the scale and appreciate the full enormity of these efforts which have enabled China's GDP growth to average almost 10 percent a year since 1978, and more than 850 million people have been lifted out of poverty, an admirable record of poverty reduction. China has continued to make a disproportionately large contribution to the pace of global growth.
  
  But China's per capita GDP is still very low (compared to rich countries), so China still has a lot of room and potential for further GDP growth.
  
  We need to appreciate these determined efforts to end poverty and hunger to ensure that people can fulfil their potential through sustainable consumption and production, managing the natural resources sustainably so that we can support the needs of the present and future generations, ensuring that people can enjoy prosperous and fulfilling lives and that economic, social and technological progress occurs to bring shared prosperity.
  
  Even at the best of times, economic developments, infrastructure building, human capital developments can be very difficult let alone in countries inflicted with violence/chaos or being undermined by others constantly.
  
  No one will invest in a business if rioting mobs are destroying it. So we do need peace and stability to create certainty and confidence that will encourage investments, human capital developments, jobs creation to help to eradicate poverty and hunger, expanding the richness of human life in shared prosperity.
  
  We also cannot ignore inequality between countries, within countries and between women and men if we truly want to eradicate poverty and hunger.
  
  Why global trade?
  The key is opportunity cost (this is comparative advantage, not competitive advantage, not absolute advantage).
  
  Global trade allows different countries to take advantage of their respective comparative advantage (a country's ability to produce a particular good or service at a lower opportunity cost than its trading partners bearing in mind that opportunity cost is the true cost of doing something) and then, by trading these goods/services among themselves, every trading partner is better off.
  
  Indeed, knowing that there are gains from trade with increase of consumer surplus and producer surplus (the pie grows bigger and bigger) that make the trade-participating countries better off, all countries need to work cooperatively to achieve win-win outcomes, but there are some people (far too many) adopting antagonistic approach to scuttle these efforts to achieve win-win outcomes.
  
  With lower opportunity cost, specialization and trade that will make larger quantities of goods and services available to consumers, so we’ve more of more (and most) goods/services available which, on balance, will deliver more advantages than costs—lifting hundreds and hundreds of millions out of poverty and benefiting billions of consumers in countries rich and poor.
  
  With technological advances, physical capital, human capital, nations (with respective lower opportunity costs) are able to manufacture many goods (like solar panels, home appliances, etc.) at lower and lower costs benefiting billions of consumers around the world rich and poor.
  
  This is important as cheaper goods help all people (especially the poor people to be able to afford such goods to help them to improve/lift themselves out of poverty). It is also very important to help all countries to fight global problems like climate change as solar panels (wind turbines, etc.) become cheaper and cheaper.
  
  In the last few years, President Trump’s unilateralism and destructive behaviors have deliberately weakened the rules-based, multilateral trading system, making the WTO’s Appellate Body dysfunctional (refusal to approve new judges to fill vacancies), imposing illegal sanctions, etc.
  
  Hence US (new President) and leaders of other countries must begin to address the systemic and underlying trade issues as soon as possible—for the good of the world as well as for individual affected countries rich and poor – through negotiations.
  
  With market-economy reforms fuelling China economic growth, there will be more and more opportunities being created making China an economic engine complementing the US economic engine and this is a good thing as we’ve 2 big economic engines powering the global economy, enhancing global economic stability, creating opportunities for countries around the world to take advantage of these opportunities to trade among themselves based on individual country’s comparative advantage that will make every trade-participating country better off…
  
  Given the large size of US economy (GDP 21 trillions USD) and China economy (GDP 15 trillions USD, this GDP is even bigger in purchasing power parity term), the US economic cycle is likely not the same as economic cycle in China, this is important as the complementarity of these 2 large economies will smooth out the overall global economy, avoiding extreme economic ups/downs (like global recessions).
  
  If the Eurozone is able to overcome their difficulty and achieve good growth, the Eurozone will be the 3rd big economic engine powering the global economy which is even better as we’ll have 3 big economic engines driving the global economy (Ideally, Eurozone should have fiscal union but the rich Eurozone countries resent subsidizing poorer Eurozone members with high unemployment and government-debts. Without fiscal union, the Eurozone continues to face inherent risk and difficulty)…
  
  India (population 1.4 billion, per capita GDP = 2000 USD), Indonesia (population 273 million, per capita GDP = 3900 USD), Nigeria (population 214 million, per capita GDP = 2000 USD), Brazil (population 212 million, per capita GDP = 8900 USD) also have large populations with very low per capita GDP, they also have a lot of room and potential for further GDP growth. If these countries can carry out the necessary reforms, embark on sustainable economic developments, build infrastructure, develop human capital, create jobs to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty (with help of global trade), these countries will be the additional engines driving the global economy further complementing the 3 engines (US, EU and China) to smooth out the overall global economy.
  
  Wages in China have been rising year after year, China has to move up the value-chain, so more lower-skilled jobs will be moved to other countries (India, Nigeria, etc.) with large populations still living in poverty, with more jobs in these countries, this is very good news as they can lift hundreds and hundreds of millions out of poverty.
  
  We need all countries to work cooperatively to accomplish win-win outcome, unilateralism and bullying will not work.
  
  All countries should have good relationship with one another to create peace and stability to allow all countries to develop, to eradicate poverty and hunger, create wealth (growing the pie bigger) and to bring shared prosperity to the people.
  
  So, indeed, there are many global problems (climate change, etc.) that need all countries accepting and respecting each other's system of government, and focus on cooperation and areas of global agreement that can be reached.
  
  People must be objective, understanding and assessing things/issues based on facts.
  
  Poverty is a serious problem in many countries (including US having problem of inequality, racism and poverty, among others).
  
  After 42 years of economic developments, building infrastructure and developing human capital, China has a lot of experience/ knowledge to share and help other countries fighting poverty and this should be welcomed as there are more than 700 millions people in the world still live in poverty, so we cannot be complacent to fight and eliminate poverty around the world.
  
  BRI is part of the initiatives to help to fight poverty in many countries in Asia and elsewhere (remember there are more than 700 millions people in the world still live in poverty and I hope everyone agrees that these 700+ millions people have every right to lift themselves out of poverty, so we cannot be complacent.)
  
  With international cooperation and global efforts to combat poverty worldwide, we can look forward to the day when poverty is eliminated sooner rather than later.
  
  There are many races, many cultures and many languages in the world, so it is important for all these peoples to co-exist peacefully (we do not want wars let alone nuke war) whilst not imposing one's own values/systems on others and not interfering internal affairs of other countries.
  
  This is a multilateral world governed by UN Charter, so all countries (and their systems of governments) should co-exist mutually and peacefully and all countries are protected by UN Charter.
  
  Any countries that attack/invade illegally (like US/NATO attacking Iraq, Libya, etc. which are war crimes) must be brought to justice to uphold the rule of law.
  
  We need all countries to work cooperatively to accomplish peace and prosperity, unilateralism and bullying will not work.
  
  All countries (and their systems of governments) can co-exist mutually without interfering internal affairs of another countries and they can work cooperatively to resolve their differences to accomplish peace and prosperity.
  
  Given the global challenges that all countries are facing (combating terrorism, avoiding wars (including nuclear war); ending poverty, reducing economic inequality, cooperating to stave off the catastrophic consequences of climate change, etc. —all countries must cooperate and work together to create a better world in these respects. The ideal way to work together is not to increase tensions with one another but to increase global cooperation to find common interests with realism and idealism to achieve common goals that will lead to a better and healthier world.
  
  For CO2 emissions, here are CO2 emissions (in tons per capita) for some countries:
  Australia = 16.8, US = 16.1, Canada =16.1, South Korea = 13.6, Russia =12.1, Japan = 9.4, China = 8.0
  
  For RE (Renewable Energy), here are some data:
  United States: Total electricity = 4,322,038 GWh, Total RE = 637,076 GWh, RE % of total = 14.7%
  Japan: Total electricity = 1,057,976 GWh, Total RE = 158,822 GWh, RE % of total = 15.0%
  China: Total electricity = 7,142,200 GWh, Total RE = 1,739,400 GWh, RE % of total = 24.35%
  Germany: Total electricity = 514,860 GWh, Total RE = 237,610 GWh, RE % of total = 46.2%
  India: Total electricity = 1,550,564 GWh, Total RE = 261,790 GWh, RE % of total = 16.88%
  Australia: Total electricity = 256,563 GWh, Total RE = 37,205 GWh, RE % of total = 14.5%
  Canada: Total electricity = 667,438 GWh, Total RE = 433,597 GWh, RE % of total = 65.0%
  - Peter Schaeffer Jan 24, 2021
    
    Sorry, but the atmosphere doesn't care about per-capita emissions. The atmosphere cares about actual emissions and China is number 1, by far. However, here are some actual facts. Australia produces 0.328 KG of CO2 per $ of GDP (from the World Bank and other sources). The rest of the numbers are US 0.3, Canada 0.332, S. Korea 0.344, Russia 0.453, Japan 0.243, and China 0.561. China is not number 1 (by this measure). That would be Trinidad at 1.031 Kg of CO2 per $ of GDP.
    - Paul Friesen Feb 7, 2021
      
      Per capita emissions is the only remotely fair way to measure a country's CO2 output. Do you really expect China to achieve the same total output as Luxembourg? And emissions per dollar of output makes no more sense. Just because a country is lucky enough to have lots of industry clustered there, it gets to emit more? Why should it not be that, because it is rich, it has more responsibility to bear the burden?
      - Peter Schaeffer Feb 7, 2021
        
        "Do you really expect China to achieve the same total output as Luxembourg?" My opinion, is meaningless. However, the atmosphere only care about total emissions and yes China produces vastly more CO2 than Luxembourg. Emissions per dollar of output does take into account how much industry a country has. China does poorly and the US does a lot better by this measure. Just the facts. You don't have to like them.
        
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    - Susan Robinson Jan 25, 2021
      
      Yes, all poor nations (India, Nigeria, etc.) will develop economically to lift hundreds of millions out of poverty, the world cares about per-capita emissions.
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