缅甸的民族炸药桶

布拉格—缅甸在二十年军事独裁历史后举行的首次普选已经过去两年了。人们欢迎民选,认为它是缅甸从军政走向文治的重要一步,而缅甸经济在总统登盛的文职政府领导下也取得了令人瞩目的成就。但是,如果缅甸不能解决其长期存在的民族冲突,则所有的进步都可能化为黄粱一梦。

缅甸政府与其少数民族之间的关系麻烦重重,这构成了缅甸走向稳定和繁荣之路上的一大严重阻碍。事实上,缅甸近期历史充满了民族暴力和延绵不绝的反政府冲突,特别是在克伦、掸、克钦诸邦。

缅甸的许多少数民族——总人数占全国人口的近40%——长期遭受着迫害和虐待。因此,他们往往对政府怀有愤怒和不满之情,甚至不乏拿起武器抵抗政府的举动。缅甸转型的反对者很有可能利用这一紧张局面,对民族冲突煽风点火,以此破坏改革努力。

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