Il rebus dei flussi di capitale

ITHACA – Negli ultimi mesi, le economie emergenti hanno ricevuto una sferzata sul fronte dei flussi di capitale. Indicazioni che la Federal Reserve possa ridurre il quantitative easing (QE) – il cosiddetto tapering – hanno spinto gli investitori a limitare la propria esposizione ai mercati emergenti, indebolendo gravemente le valute di questi ultimi e facendo crollare i prezzi delle loro azioni. Ora che il tapering è stato rinviato, in alcuni casi il capitale ha ripreso a circolare. Tuttavia, avendo scarsa influenza, e tanto meno il controllo, su quello che succederà in seguito, le economie emergenti hanno ancora difficoltà a capire come proteggersi dagli effetti di un’inversione di rotta da parte della Fed.

Quando la Fed ha cominciato ad accennare alla possibilità di ridurre il QE, i policy maker di alcuni paesi emergenti hanno gridato allo scandalo, ma sono stati congedati da alcuni rappresentanti delle economie avanzate come inclini al lamento. Dopotutto, all’inizio sono stati proprio loro a respingere quelle stesse politiche che ora vogliono mantenere a tutti i costi.

Le critiche mosse dai policy maker dei paesi emergenti, però, non sottintendono un atteggiamento incoerente; in entrambi i casi, l’elemento cruciale della loro denuncia è stato la volatilità. Questi paesi hanno già tentato di erigere barriere contro gli effetti potenzialmente destabilizzanti della politica monetaria dei paesi avanzati accumulando riserve di valuta estera e istituendo controlli sui capitali. Ora stanno facendo appello alle rispettive banche centrali affinché garantiscano la stabilità, ad esempio, aumentando i tassi di prestito a breve termine.

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