资本流之谜

伊萨卡—最近几个月以来,新兴经济体经历了资本流的鞭挞。美联储可能“逐步减少”其量化宽松(QE)等迹象让投资者争相降低新兴市场风险敞口,导致新兴市场货币大幅贬值、股价崩盘。如今“逐渐减少”被叫停,一些新兴市场又出现了资本回流。但是,新兴经济体对于下一步会发生什么缺少控制力和影响力,它们仍在苦苦寻找如何保护自己免受美联储政策反复的冲击。

美联储一开始暗示其意图逐渐减少QE时,一些新兴经济体的决策者怨声载道,但发达经济体官员指出他们经常这样大声抱怨。毕竟,一开始他们反对如今他们拼命要保留的政策。

但新兴市场决策者的批评并不自相矛盾;不论是一开始还是现在,他们抱怨的核心问题是波动。他们已经试图建立起防御工事抵御具有潜在破坏效应的发达国家货币政策——积累外汇储备、实施资本管制。如今,他们要求中央银行通过(比如)提高短期贷款税来确保稳定。

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