Wie man der Deflationsfalle entkommt

Die Deflation wird das alles beherrschende Thema beim Vorstandstreffen der amerikanischen Notenbank Federal Reserve am 24. Juni. Michael Woodford, einer der führenden Experten auf dem Gebiet des Zentralbankwesens erläutet seine Strategie, um fallende Preise in den Griff zu bekommen.

In einer kürzlich gehaltenen Rede vor Bankern in Berlin räumte Alan Greenspan ein, dass in den USA eine ,,Versicherung" gegen eine - obwohl noch nicht eingetretene - Deflation wünschenswert wäre. Damit richtete sich die Aufmerksamkeit auf ein entscheidendes Thema. Wie kann die Wirtschaft stabilisiert werden, wenn die Nominalzinssätze nicht mehr weiter gesenkt werden können, die Preise aber weiter fallen und der Output Gap - der Unterschied zwischen dem, was produziert werden kann und dem, was tatsächlich produziert wird - weiterhin auseinander klafft? Was John Maynard Keynes in den dreißiger Jahren des vorigen Jahrhunderts als theoretisches Denkbeispiel formulierte wurde heute zu einer Grundsatzfrage für Politiker in den größten Volkswirtschaften der Welt.

Japan ist das beste Beispiel für dieses Problem. Schwaches Wachstum und anhaltende Deflation zeigen den Bedarf für einen monetären Stimulus. Der Benchmark-Zinssatz war aber in Japan in den letzten vier Jahren ohnehin fast bei Null, so dass der übliche monetäre Stimulus - eine Reduktion der kurzfristigen Zinssätze - nicht in Frage kommt.

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