President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Politics

埃尔多安的第二次机会

Nov 2, 2015 Sinan Ülgen

伊斯坦布尔—在最近的土耳其大选中，选民在五个月的时间里两次前往投票站，其结果揭示了土耳其民主以及土耳其人民偏好的一些重要特点。

今年，土耳其进行了两次议会选举，第一次是在6月，被广泛认为是总统埃尔多安加强其班子权力的全民公决。结果是明确的。埃尔多安的正义和发展党（AKP）只获得了41%的选票，失去了自2002年掌权以来的多数支持率。

但是，6月选举后的谈判导致了无多数议会，11月1日，土耳其再次举行投票，结果截然不同。这一回，选举主要被视为关于继续一党执政的全民公决，AKP赢得49%的选票，获得了令人心安的多数。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Stepan Benyovszky Nov 9, 2015

Erdogan has one-sidedly broken truce with the PKK and has actively worked on destabilising his own country and discrediting the Kurdish minority simply in order to win these elections. He has made a ruthless political move - one fitting for a man who would be dictator.

If the author indeed somehow still believes AKP might be less "paternalistic" or to respect the political rights of the minorities, he is clearly unfit to comment on the matter at all. The final goals of both Erdogan and AKP are clear: a religious state ruled by the strong hand of one man. Period.
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David Olsen Nov 5, 2015

The basic message is that Turks aren't ready for multi-party democracy, they are still in the days of the Sultanate. Like Russia they have gone back to the comfort of a single paternal ruler.
Erdogan is still the defacto leader of Turkey, and he does not like to tolerate dissent.

The AKP party attacked the Kurds to create a sense of danger looming within the conservative Turkish electorate, who fell for that trick and went back to the devil they know.

Meanwhile Isil have bombed targets within Turkey. So you have a situation where if Erdogan continues with his previous agenda the Kurds will feel more marginalised and the prospect of Kurdish separatist rebellion become more real. Turkey trying to support Isil in Syria while keeping it at bay in Turkey won't work and will mean an increased chance of the destabilisation of Turkey.

Turkey is in as much danger of becoming part of the Islamic state as Saudi Arabia in that respect. The danger is real and a strong leader that ignores 40% of the wishes of the population is not a help in combating the spread of Isil.

The Muslim brotherhood in Egypt showed that one party rule in favour of 60% of the electorate is not an automatic success when you ignore vested interests in the society.

As Turkey attempts to become more East than West, who is to say it will not become more like Pakistan, Iraq and Syria rather than becoming more like Putin's Russia, the goal to which Erdogan obviously aspires.
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Can Calhan Nov 3, 2015

The true circumstances, which were created by Mr. Erdogan, based on; fear intimidation, accusation, blackmailing, and denial of basic equal right of a oppositional party were in the rise for the election November 1. The AKP silenced anyone who was critical to the Party. More importantly the AKP used all the state facilities to conduct its election campaign. Therefore, the outcome of the election represents legitimised the forceful power of state used by the AKP more than the desire/wish of public.
Mr. Erdogan has been ruling Turkey like a tribal society. He sees himself as the head of the tribe. He has been behind every decision, regardless of constitutional boundaries. He confessed by saying " I was elected directly. I am different. I cannot take the constitution as a reference point. There is a contradiction between my new presidential legitimacy and the constitution. So the constitution must be tailored according to my new role"
Anyone who is critical of Mr. Erdogan is the direct target. “ If you are not on my side you are against me” Many individual, organisations, and institutions have been punished through different means. He created a culture of fear, which led to auto censorship, as it can be clearly seen in the article of Mr. Ülgen. It is like a journalistic-work informing on the situation rather than political analysis. Mr. Erdogan created a party-state whose judges and prosecutors have been engaging to follow and punish the opposition.
The question is why the AKP, particularly Mr Erdogan has been ruling the country like this? The simple answer is Mr Erdogan never believed in a true democracy. He made many statements in the past repudiating democracy. His political ambition is to establish a sort of theocratic system based on the principles of SUNNI Islam, whose head is called Sultan or Caliph. Mr. Erdogan dream to pass on history as a person achieved it. The reason is why he can not act directly to complete the transformation is because of the internal and external pressure of which he is aware and therefore use the process in a gradual way.
Any political development may undermine his control of power has been eliminated, regardless of political, economic, and human life as a prise to be paid. This was the reason he ended the peace process, because the Peoples Democratic Party (HDP), fundamentally representing the support of Kurds, was gaining out of the process and rejected to support the ambition of Mr Erdogan to be elected as president. Again the reason he initiated the war against the Kurds, Media, opposition parties and PKK during the election period was to spread the message “ If you don’t elect the AKP as single government this is the price you will have to pay”. Lets see if he can recognise that democratic constitution cannot be replaced by religious rules.
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 3, 2015

Sinan Ülgen urges Recep Tayyip Erdogan to be more conciliatory now that his Justice and Development (AK) Party has won a landslide victory and will command a majority in the new parliament. But it wasn't a fair election to start with, because deadly attacks on opposition parties hindered their ability to camapign safely. This had taken a toll on the pro-Kurdish party (HDP) because of the resumption of violence in the Kurdish areas which many believed was stoked up by the government to create a climate of fear. Due to crackdown on media critical of the government, opposition parties struggled to gain access to the mainstream media.
After the setbacks in the June election and the failure to form a coalition government, Erdogan's snap election and his rhetoric: "It's either me or chaos" had paid off. Victory for his Islamist-leaning party was sweet, because few of them believed they would be able to return to single party rule. He has called on the international community to respect the election results. But will he respect the principle of the rule of the law?
The opposition is resentful, fearing an assertive Erdogan would only tighten his grip on power and weaken basic freedoms. He may even seek to increase the role of his presidency, leaving Turkey more polarised than ever.
The author says "the outcome of the vote attests to the ineffectiveness of Turkey’s parliamentary opposition." Indeed, the two main opposition parties - the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the conservative Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) - are in disarray. The CHP is the oldest political party of Turkey - a Kemalist and social-democratic political party. The MHP is a Turkish far-right party, also informally known as the Grey Wolves, referring to its unofficial paramilitary youth wing.
Both parties had failed to come up with credible candidates who could "make a dent in the AKP's popularity." Last year they agreed on preventing Erdogan from becoming president. They believed that Erdogan, whose authoritarian streak has increasingly divided the country, intended to expand his executive power, and they wanted to stop it.
In yesterday's election the two opposition parties, the MHP and the HDP "together lost three million votes, while the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) held its ground, finishing second with 25% of the vote." As Erdogan's AKP holds less than 50% of the seats in Parliament, there's hope that these three parties would keep Erdogan in check. His voters want a "nanny-state" and feel comfortable with a "heavily paternalistic style of governance." They no doubt love Erdogan's combative charisma and wouldn't mind him running "roughshod over /his/ opponents."
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Bob Logic Nov 3, 2015

Is this an analysis or propaganda?
- Stepan Benyovszky Nov 9, 2015
  
  Indeed. I wonder.
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埃尔多安的第二次机会

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