Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan/Brookings Institution

Cruciales elecciones en Turquía

ESTAMBUL – En muy pocas democracias un leve giro en la cantidad de votos daría lugar a resultados tan diferentes como los que podrían ocurrir en las elecciones generales turcas del 7 de junio. Una diferencia de menos del 1% de los votos a nivel nacional podría decidir si el gobernante Partido de la Justicia y el Desarrollo (AKP) se ve obligado a formar un gobierno de coalición (el primero tras 13 años de régimen unipartidista), dejando al Presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan sin herramientas para cumplir su antiguo deseo de fortalecer la presidencia.

Las elecciones turcas han sido más bien monótonas desde que el AKP llegara al poder en 2002: una y otra vez han arrojado victorias arrolladoras y dado pie a gobiernos de mayoría. Sin embargo, este año las perspectivas son distintas, ya que los resultados son inciertos y lo que está en juego no puede ser mayor. De ellos dependen no sólo el futuro político de Erdogan, sino la posibilidad de llegar a un arreglo duradero con los kurdos turcos y garantizar la solvencia en el largo plazo de la propia democracia turca.

Esta vez la incertidumbre se puede atribuir al Partido Democrático del Pueblo, predominantemente kurdo. Debido a su temor a no alcanzar el umbral del 10% del voto popular necesario para entrar al parlamento, los partidos políticos kurdos han preferido en el pasado no participar en las elecciones. En lugar de ello, los políticos kurdos se han presentado como candidatos independientes, que no están sujetos a ese umbral, para reunirse bajo la bandera de un partido una vez logrado el escaño.

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