Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan/Brookings Institution

Kritische Wahlen in der Türkei

ISTANBUL – In wenigen Demokratien können so geringe Stimmenunterschiede zu so unterschiedlichen Ergebnissen führen wie bei den türkischen Parlamentswahlen am 7. Juni. Eine Differenz von weniger als einem Prozent der abgegebenen Stimmen könnte darüber entscheiden, ob die regierende AKP gezwungen wird, eine Koalition zu bilden - es wäre die erste nach 13 Jahren absoluter Mehrheit. Damit ginge Präsident Erdogan lang gehegter Wunsch, die Präsidentschaft zu stärken, nicht in Erfüllung.

Die türkischen Wahlen sind eine sehr langweilige Angelegenheit, seitdem die AKP 2002 an die Macht gekommen ist. Die Wahlergebnisse der Partei waren immer so gut wie vorherbestimmt: erdrutschartige Siege und absolute Mehrheiten. Dieses Jahr jedoch ist die Prognose anders: die Ergebnisse sind alles andere als sicher, und es könnte kaum mehr auf dem Spiel stehen. Von den Wahlen hängt nicht nur die politische Zukunft Erdogans ab, sondern auch die Chance auf eine langfristige Einigung mit den Kurden und die Fundamente der türkischen Demokratie selbst.

Die Ungewissheit geht auf die kurdisch orientierte Demokratische Volkspartei HDP zurück. Kurdischen Parteien sind bei vergangenen Wahlen aufgrund der 10-Prozent-Hürde für den Einzug ins Parlament nicht angetreten. Stattdessen kandidierten kurdische Politiker als unabhängige Kandidaten, die dieser Regelung nicht unterworfen sind. Sobald sie sicher im Amt waren, vereinigten sie sich wieder unter dem Banner einer Partei.

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