Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan/Brookings Institution

Turquie : des élections cruciales

ISTANBUL – Rares sont les démocraties où un déplacement aussi infime de votes pourrait produire des résultats aussi divergents que lors des prochaines élections législatives en Turquie le 7 juin. Un basculement de moins de 1 pour cent des voix pourrait déterminer si le parti au pouvoir,  le Parti de la justice et du développement (AKP), sera contraint de former un gouvernement de coalition – le premier depuis 13 ans d’un régime à parti unique. Une telle issue aurait pour conséquence que le président Recep Tayyip Erdogan devrait renoncer à son rêve de renforcer ses pouvoirs présidentiels.

Depuis l’arrivée au pouvoir de l’AKP en 2002, les élections turques ont été ennuyeuses au possible. Les scores du parti étaient pour ainsi dire préétablis : des victoires écrasantes qui lui permettaient de former des gouvernements de majorité. Cette année, les perspectives sont différentes : les résultats sont loin d’être certains et les enjeux sont énormes. Ce n’est pas seulement l’avenir politique d’Erdogan qui est suspendu à l’issue du scrutin, mais également la possibilité d’un accord à long terme avec les Kurdes du pays et la solidité à long terme de la démocratie turque même.

Cette fois-ci, les incertitudes tiennent au score que pourrait réaliser le principal mouvement kurde, le Parti démocratique du peuple (HDP). Jusqu’à présent, les partis politiques kurdes avaient évité de se présenter aux élections, de crainte de ne pas franchir le seuil qui impose à un parti de réunir plus de 10% des voix au niveau national pour entrer au Parlement. Les politiciens kurdes préféraient se présenter en candidats indépendants, qui ne sont pas assujettis à ce seuil. Une fois élus, ils se ralliaient à un parti.

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