Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan/Brookings Institution

土耳其的关键选举

伊斯坦布尔——极少有民主国家像6月7日大选时的土耳其那样因为很小的选票变化而改变最终选局。不到1%的国内选票变化就有可能决定执政的正义与发展党(AKP)是否要在土耳其13年的一党执政后被迫组建联合政府——从而使雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安总统无法达成强化总统权力的愿望。

自2002年正义与发展党上台后土耳其大选一直非常沉闷。该党取得压倒性胜利和组建多数政府的选举结果几乎是预先注定的。但今年的情况却有所不同:选举结果根本无法确定,而其中所牵扯的利益则高得不能再高。选举结果不仅将决定埃尔多安的政治命运,还将决定能否与库尔德人达成长期和解以及土耳其民主制度的长期前途。

此次的不确定性是由以库尔德人为主的人民民主党(HDP)造成的。库尔德政党过去一直回避参选,因为他们害怕凑不够进入议会所需的10%的公众选票。相反,库尔德政治家会以不受10%门槛限制的独立候选人身份参选。一旦成功当选,他们再重新集结在库尔德政党的旗帜下。

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