Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Pavel Ko

¿Por qué divergen las acciones y los bonos?

CAMBRIDGE – ¿Cómo entender la divergencia entre los nuevos máximos de los índices bursátiles globales y los nuevos mínimos de los tipos de interés reales en todo el mundo? En un intento de reconciliar estas tendencias se han ofrecido diversas explicaciones excluyentes. Encontrar la correcta es esencial para calibrar adecuadamente la política fiscal y monetaria.

Las explicaciones más comunes pueden ser peligrosamente engañosas, ya que subestiman los factores de riesgo. Por ejemplo, la teoría del “estancamiento secular” asegura que la baja de los tipos de interés es normal, porque la economía global padece escasez crónica de demanda, y esto puede subsanarse con un crecimiento sostenido del gasto público.

Según esta idea, el optimismo de las bolsas sólo refleja una baja tasa de descuento de las ganancias futuras. Además, durante las últimas décadas, la participación de los trabajadores en las ganancias parece haber caído pronunciadamente en las ocho economías más grandes del mundo, con la posible excepción del Reino Unido. A la inversa, la participación del capital viene en aumento, lo que obviamente empuja un alza de las acciones (aunque también siguen subiendo en países como Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido, donde comienza a verse al menos una recuperación cíclica de la participación de los trabajadores, y donde muy pronto podría haber aumentos del tipo de interés).

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