Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Pavel Ko

Il divario azioni-bond

CAMBRIDGE – Come si dovrebbe interpretare il divario tra i massimi registrati dagli indici azionari globali e i minimi raggiunti dai tassi di interesse reali in tutto il mondo? Diverse spiegazioni tentano di trovare un punto di incontro tra questi andamenti, e farlo correttamente è fondamentale per regolare la politica fiscale e monetaria in maniera adeguata.

Le spiegazioni più comuni minimizzano i fattori di rischio in un modo tale che può essere pericolosamente fuorviante. Ad esempio, la teoria della “stagnazione secolare” sostiene che i tassi di interesse bassi mostrano la verità. L’economia globale soffre di un continuo calo della domanda, a cui si può rimediare tramite una crescita sostenuta della spesa pubblica.

Secondo questo punto di vista, i mercati azionari in rialzo riflettono semplicemente una scarsa considerazione dei profitti futuri. Inoltre, la quota profitto del lavoro sembra aver subito un considerevole calo negli ultimi decenni nelle otto maggiori economie mondiali, ad eccezione del Regno Unito. Invece, la quota del capitale sociale è in aumento, il che naturalmente contribuisce ad accrescere il valore delle azioni (anche se i prezzi delle azioni continuano a salire in Paesi come gli Stati Uniti e il Regno Unito dove le quote del lavoro hanno cominciato almeno una ripresa ciclica, e dove si potrebbe verificare un rialzo dei tassi di interesse).

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