Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Pavel Ko

De ontkoppeling van aandelen en obligaties

CAMBRIDGE – Hoe moeten we de discrepantie tussen de nieuwe pieken op de mondiale beursindexen en de nieuwe diepten van de wereldwijde rentetarieven duiden? Er zijn meerdere concurrerende verklaringen die deze trends met elkaar proberen te verzoenen, en de juiste identificeren is essentieel voor het correct afstemmen van monetair en fiscaal beleid.

De meest gehoorde verklaringen bagatelliseren risicofactoren op een manier die gevaarlijk misleidend kan zijn. Zo claimt de ‘voortdurende stagnatie’-theorie bijvoorbeeld dat de kern van het verhaal de lage rentetarieven zijn. De wereldeconomie lijdt onder een chronisch tekort aan vraag, wat opgelost kan worden door de duurzame groei van overheidsuitgaven.

Volgens deze visie weerspiegelen de omhoog vliegende aandelenmarkten slechts de lage verdiscontering van toekomstige winsten. Bovendien lijkt in de acht grootste economieën van de wereld het aandeel van arbeid in de winst de afgelopen decennia aanzienlijk te zijn gedaald, met mogelijke uitzondering van het Verenigd Koninkrijk. Het aandeel van kapitaal in de winst is juist gestegen, wat de waarde van aandelen vanzelfsprekend doet stijgen (alhoewel de koersen ook in landen waar het arbeidsaandeel met een - op zijn minst - cyclisch herstel is begonnen, zoals de VS en het VK, zijn blijven stijgen, en er daar wellicht spoedig rentestijgingen in het verschiet liggen).

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