Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Pavel Ko

De ontkoppeling van aandelen en obligaties

CAMBRIDGE – Hoe moeten we de discrepantie tussen de nieuwe pieken op de mondiale beursindexen en de nieuwe diepten van de wereldwijde rentetarieven duiden? Er zijn meerdere concurrerende verklaringen die deze trends met elkaar proberen te verzoenen, en de juiste identificeren is essentieel voor het correct afstemmen van monetair en fiscaal beleid.

De meest gehoorde verklaringen bagatelliseren risicofactoren op een manier die gevaarlijk misleidend kan zijn. Zo claimt de ‘voortdurende stagnatie’-theorie bijvoorbeeld dat de kern van het verhaal de lage rentetarieven zijn. De wereldeconomie lijdt onder een chronisch tekort aan vraag, wat opgelost kan worden door de duurzame groei van overheidsuitgaven.

Volgens deze visie weerspiegelen de omhoog vliegende aandelenmarkten slechts de lage verdiscontering van toekomstige winsten. Bovendien lijkt in de acht grootste economieën van de wereld het aandeel van arbeid in de winst de afgelopen decennia aanzienlijk te zijn gedaald, met mogelijke uitzondering van het Verenigd Koninkrijk. Het aandeel van kapitaal in de winst is juist gestegen, wat de waarde van aandelen vanzelfsprekend doet stijgen (alhoewel de koersen ook in landen waar het arbeidsaandeel met een - op zijn minst - cyclisch herstel is begonnen, zoals de VS en het VK, zijn blijven stijgen, en er daar wellicht spoedig rentestijgingen in het verschiet liggen).

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/d4fpuKz/nl;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.