Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Pavel Ko

股债脱节

坎布里奇——人们应当如何看待全球股指迭创新高和实际利率屡创新低间的脱节关系?几种截然不同的解释试图理顺上述趋势关系,而且只有把握原因才能精确调整货币和财政政策。

最流行的淡化风险因素的解释在某种程度上危险地误导了人们的思维。比方说,“长期停滞”理论认为低利率才是事情的本质。全球经济正受困于长期需求不足,可以通过持续增加政府支出来弥补事态。

按照这种观点,股票市场飙升仅仅反映未来利润折扣降低。此外,除英国外,纵观全世界八大经济体,劳动力收入占利润份额似乎在 近数十年呈明显下降态势。反之,资本利润份额持续上行当然引发股价上涨(但股价在英美等劳动力收入占比至少开始周期性复苏且加息渐行渐近的国家依然保持了上升态势)。

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