Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Pavel Ko

الصلة المنقطعة بين الأسهم والسندات

كمبريدج ــ تُرى كيف ينبغي للمرء أن يفهم هذا الانفصام بين الارتفاعات الجديدة التي سجلتها مؤشرات الأسهم العالمية والمستويات الدنيا الجديدة التي بلغتها أسعار الفائدة الحقيقية في مختلف أنحاء العالم؟ الواقع أن العديد من التفسيرات المتنافسة تحاول التوفيق بين هذين الاتجاهين، والتوصل إلى فهم صحيح لهذا التناقض يشكل ضرورة أساسية لمعايرة السياسة النقدية والمالية على النحو اللائق.

تهون التفسيرات الأكثر شعبية من عوامل الخطر على نحو قد يكون مضللاً إلى حد خطير. على سبيل المثال، تزعم نظرية "الركود المادي المزمن" أن أسعار الفائدة المنخفضة تنبئنا بالقصة الحقيقية. ذلك أن الاقتصادي العالمي يعاني من عجز مزمن في الطلب، والذي يمكن علاجه من خلال النمو المستدام في الإنفاق الحكومي.

وفقاً لهذا الرأي فإن أسواق الأسهم التي ارتفعت إلى عنان السماء لا تعكس سوى اقتطاع منخفض من أرباح المستقبل. وعلاوة على ذلك، يبدو أن حصة العمال في الأرباح سجلت هبوطاً ملحوظاً في العقود الأخيرة في كل الاقتصادات العالمية الثمانية الأكبر حجما، ربما باستثناء المملكة المتحدة. وعلى العكس من ذلك، كانت حصة رأس المال في الأرباح في ارتفاع، وهو ما يرفع بطبيعة الحال من قيمة الأسهم (ولو أن أسعار الأسهم استمرت في الصعود في بلدان مثل الولايات المتحدة والمملكة المتحدة حيث بدأ نصيب العمال التعافي الدوري على الأقل، وحيث قد يكون ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة في الأفق القريب).

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