解除能源武装

布鲁塞尔——20世纪70年代的“能源武器”——为达到政治目的而拒绝输送能源——是否又将重现?当然,用石油或天然气作为政治武器说来容易做来难,可是今年俄乌天然气争端的再度爆发,以及由此导致的对欧盟绝大多数国家天然气供应的中断,应该使人们高度关注欧盟解除能源武装的必要性问题。

作为一项长期战略,能源禁运一直被事实证明徒劳无功。1973-1974年能源禁运后的12年中,沙特阿拉伯发现自己在世界石油出口中的份额大幅降低。20世纪70年代的巨大的油价涨幅变得不可持续,因为它们迫使欧洲和其他国家政府通过高燃油税、高储备和扩大非欧佩克石油产量来保护国内的消费者。

欧洲绝不能躺在陈年往事上沾沾自喜。事实上,面对一而再、再而三的俄乌争端,欧洲必须像20世纪70年代应对欧佩克挑战时一样,以同等的坚决果断多元化能源供应的来源。像中东国家一样,只有痛苦的经历才能教会俄罗斯安全的能源供应符合所有人的利益。只有像欧洲议会在2007年报告中所建议的那样,在欧洲设计、实施并坚持减少依赖俄罗斯供应的能源战略,同时在能源安全领域制定共同的外交政策,克里姆林才能记取这次的教训。

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