UEM 2.0?

BRUXELLES – Per circa un anno i policy maker europei si sono impegnati a trovare soluzioni alle problematiche legate all’Unione Economica e Monetaria. Come nel caso dei software difettosi, si sono affrettati a introdurre nuove versioni UEM, per poi scoprire quasi subito nuove vulnerabilità. Dopo i due vertici di marzo i funzionari europei sostengono di essere riusciti ad individuare una nuova versione non difettosa. Possiamo credergli questa volta?

La risposta a questa domanda si trova all’origine di tutte le problematiche dell’UEM, ovvero la prevenzione della crisi. Prima del 2010, il sistema era quasi del tutto fondato sulla supervisione dei deficit di bilancio che veniva condotta all’interno del quadro del Patto di Stabilità e Crescita (esisteva anche un sistema di supervisione economica più ampio, ma non aveva ottenuto sufficiente supporto a livello politico). La crisi ha messo in evidenza enormi problemi di implementazione di questo sistema, ma anche problematiche legate alla progettazione. Non si è infatti accesa alcuna luce rossa ad indicare i pericoli legati ai contesti di Spagna ed Irlanda.

Il nuovo regime prenderà in considerazione il rapporto debito/PIL (privando l’Italia della possibilità a di mantenere il suo debito oltre il limite) ed eventuali responsabilità implicite (ad esempio, un paese con un settore bancario oltre il limite dovrà affrontare gli eventuali costi di salvataggio). Le decisioni riguardanti le sanzioni verranno ottimizzate attraverso una “regola di maggioranza invertita” secondo cui una raccomandazione nei confronti di una decisione da parte della Commissione Europea verrà considerata adottata a meno che non venga respinta dalla maggioranza dei ministri degli stati membri. Tutte queste misure sono decisamente incoraggianti.

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