moisi167_Alexei DruzhininTASS via Getty Images_putin macron

Politics

ما هو الصحيح فيما يتعلق بانفتاح فرنسا على روسيا ؟

Sep 27, 2019 Dominique Moisi

باريس-ان الرئيس الفرنسي ايمانويل ماكرون مقتنع ان الان هو الوقت الصحيح لاعادة تشكيل العلاقات مع روسيا وعليه فلقد جعل من اولوياته الدبلوماسيه استعادة اجواء الثقة بين باريس وموسكو وهناك ثلاثة اسباب قاهرة تكمن وراء هذه الخطوة .

اولا وقبل كل شيء لقد تغير السياق الاستراتيجي العالمي بشكل دراماتيكي فالصين في حالة صعود بينما الولايات المتحدة والتي على الرغم انها ما تزال القوة المهيمنة في العالم اصبحت تنأى بنفسها عن مسؤولياتها العالمية وروسيا التي تعاني من شيخوخة السكان وتناقص اعدادهم بالاضافة الى اراضي غير مأهولة الى حد كبير هي فريسة طبيعية لطموحات الصين طويلة المدى.

ان القادة الاوروبيين يجب ان لا يراقبوا بدون ان يفعلوا شيئا روسيا والتي تفتقر لإي بديل وهي تتحالف مع الصين وعوضا عن ذلك يتوجب عليهم اقناع الروس بإن مستقبلهم مع اوروبا وليس كشريك اصغر للصين في علاقة غير متوازنة بالمرة . ان مصير روسيا يقع في الغرب وليس في الشرق.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 3 Comments on this article

Henk Crop Sep 29, 2019

It is a good idea to try to improve relations with Russia.
This containment of Russia leads nowhere.
Better economic realtions would be benefitial to both Russia and the West.
With both parties having big nuclear arsenals, communications to prevent any errors from happening could serve both.
Also there are border issues as well as differences in values. See also the articles by Joska Fisher (PS Sept 25, 2019) and Orenstein ( PS May 24, 2019 ).

These are all strategic issues and basically all proposals will touch the interest of other EU or NATO members or the US.
Macron's iniative is nice, but cannot be much more than a reconnaisance mission.
He can only be successful if he can make himself the representative of the other parties involved.
This is sad because he and France could be much more effective by operating as a teamplayer in the EU or NATO.
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j. von Hettlingen Sep 27, 2019

Dominique Moisi believes President Emmanuel Macron's reset in relations with Russia may carry “significant risks.” No doubt European leaders fear uncertainty following the collapse of the cold war-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the US and Russia. In recent years Russia is increasingly tied to a rising China, while the US under Trump is abandoning its global responsibilities. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its aggression in Eastern Ukraine had strained relations between the EU and Moscow.
However, seeking a “rapprochement” with Russia “makes more sense than” containing this vast country, since Western efforts had prompted Putin’s retaliation, by backing far-right and anti-EU nationalists across Europe, and destabilising the Continent. In light of the geopolitical reality, Macron has made renewed efforts to improve EU-Russian relations, making it a “diplomatic priority to restore a climate of trust” between Paris and Moscow, despite differences over fundamental values – liberal democracy and human rights – and ideology.
While Russia looks to China, over 70% of its people live west of the Ural Mountains. They feel their “destiny lies in the West,” and have no desire to relate themselves with East Asia or the Islamic south. In recent decades, the nuclear-armed colossus is grappling with population decline and technological underdevelopment. Unable to diversify its economy, Russia relies heavily on fossil fuels and other commodities for revenues, making it a junior partner to an energy-hungry China, and a “natural prey” for Beijing’s “long-term ambitions.” There may be potential territorial claims in Russia’s Far-East, that the Imperial China lost to the Czarist Russia following the 1858 Aigun Treaty. Today, Russians deeply resent the presence of Chinese traders and workers in the region.
The author says, Russia is “back” and European leaders “should try to convince Russians that their future is with Europe.” It is not in Europe’s interest to drive Russia further into China’s arms. In his view, Putin had in recent years “returned as a serious global actor. Many current conflicts, from Eastern Europe to the Middle East, simply cannot be addressed without involving Russia.” As Europe and the US do not share the same strategic interests, Europeans must opt for “a long-term strategic doctrine and realistic diplomacy” with Russia.
Macron’s Russian reset reminds of Obama’s. The only difference is that he seeks to “fill a leadership vacuum in Europe.” Britain, which has long been an outspoken critic of the Kremlin, will not be around following Brexit. Germany’s long-time leader, Angela Merkel “no longer has the clout or the energy to lead Europe in its dealings with the outside world, nor to rally Europeans themselves.” Other EU member states do not hold the sway on the rest of Europe.
Macron seizes the opportunity to assume the leadership role. His rapprochement with Russia is – according to the author – “perfectly in tune with France’s Gaullist tradition.” Macron may also have his own re-election in 2022 in mind. By mending fences with Putin, Russia might refrain from backing his far-right rival, Marine Le Pen, like it did in 2017, “by systematically spreading disinformation and fake news.”
The question is whether Macron’s European allies and partners will agree to what he does. They could argue that he “is acting alone without having really consulted” them. Rejecting his unilateral moves, which would force them to confront with a “fait accompli,” they would say he could “hardly claim to speak in the name of Europe.”
Putin’s term ends in 2024 and must step down, unless he finds a way to remain in power – amending the constitution or having someone to keep the presidential seat warm for him till his comeback in 2030. Given his plummeting approval ratings it is unclear whether he will be around after 2024. Nobody knows what will become of Russia in a post-Putin era.
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ما هو الصحيح فيما يتعلق بانفتاح فرنسا على روسيا ؟

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