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Tichá revoluce v měnové politice rozvíjejících se trhů

Aug 18, 2020 Piroska Nagy-Mohacsi

LONDÝN – Centrální bankovnictví na rozvíjejících se trzích prošlo během pandemie COVID-19 tichou revolucí. Na rozdíl od minulých krizí se mu podařilo napodobit to, co zavádějí centrální banky v rozvinutých ekonomikách: proticyklické politiky s kvantitativním uvolňováním (QE), nákupy aktiv v místní měně, škrty úrokových sazeb a monetizaci vládních schodků.

V minulosti by taková politika rozdmýchala inflaci a tlak na devizové kurzy. Tentokrát ne. S výjimkou několika centrálních bank, které měly potíže už před pandemií, se centrálním bankám zemí s rozvíjejícími se trhy podařilo využít QE k vytvoření většího manévrovacího prostoru pro reakci na krizi.

Tuto změnu umožnila měnová politika rozvinutých ekonomik. Jejich vlastní programy QE mají pozitivní druhotné efekty a v reakci na krizi rozšířily měnové swapy a zahraniční devizové repo operace. Ze všech opatření přijatých globálně systémovými centrálními bankami (GSCB) je nejdůležitější reakce amerického Federálního rezervního systému, ale i swapy a repo operace Evropské centrální banky (ECB) a Čínské lidové banky (PBOC) mají na regionální úrovni významný dopad.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

Jean-Pierre Dumas Sep 7, 2020

Swap lines, repos, capital flows to EMs are not QE by EMs. The important issue raised by this article is to know whether EMs & developing countries can practice QE without falling within the monetary trap of excess money creation due to QE (monetary approach to the BoP).
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Joe Ryan Aug 20, 2020

Do the swaps and repos described by Prof. Nagy-Mohacsi potentially provide mechanisms for currency unification? It sounds as if the central bank of one of 130+ mini-currencies around the world could become an additional Federal Reserve District (albeit a very small one in most of the 130 cases).
- Piroska Nagy-Mohacsi Aug 20, 2020
  
  Interesting question - thank you! I think these repos and swaps will last during the crisis period, and as with most other repos/swaps the Fed offers, they will expire afterwards. Yet they are critical in crisis management.
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Frans Verhagen Aug 19, 2020

This well-written article shows the beneficial spillover effects of the ultra-expansionary monetary policies pioneered in advanced economies to emerging markets, but they still remain at the mercy of advanced economies today particularly when some normalcy may return after the control of the coronavirus-19 pandemic. One characteristic of this situation is the uncertainty, unsustainability and the instability of the global economic and monetary systems. They are in crisis mode and many observers are proposing the need for a New Normal, New Social Contract, etc. without going into much detail.

Verhagen 2012"The Tierra Solution: Resolving the Climate Crisis through Monetary Transformation" proposed to transform the unjust, unsustainable, and therefore, unstable international monetary system by basing it on a monetary system such as a specific tonnage of CO2e per person. A pathway to such decarbonization-based international monetary system would systemically deal with the looming climate catastrophe which is a far larger threat to human and other life on the planet than the present pandemic. The ethical, commercial, intellectual, ecological and strategic dimensions of such decarbonization-based international monetary system are being update in its sequel "PRIME TIME for the Planet: A pathway to a just and sustainable global governance system for the 21st century and beyond."

Monetary authorities which generally try to carry out the dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment can contribute by to advancement of a decarbonization-based international monetary system by pursuing decarbonization as part of a triple mandate. Each monetary authority can start the process of amending the law that legislates their dual mandate. This reformist measure of a legislative change would greatly contribute to the transformation of the global monetary system itself.
- Piroska Nagy-Mohacsi Aug 20, 2020
  
  Important point - thank you! Quite a few central banks are going in the direction of supporting a greener economy you describe. I agree this is important. I would argue that at the same time this would require an additional accountability mechanism - as any add-on task under central bank independence.
  - Frans Verhagen Aug 21, 2020
    
    I agree about the need for an additional accountability mechanism for implementing the triple monetary mandate. However, this reformist measure pales in respect to the need for transforming the global monetary system by basing it on a decarbonization standard such as the specific tonnage of CO2e per person. I would be most interested in discussing with you this transformational approach that could lead to a just and sustainable global governance system. My email is gaia1@rcn.com and my cell is 917 617 6217 for WhatsApp or my Skype name is fcvnyc.
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