India flood  house submerged Prabhat Kumar Verma/ZumaPress

Великий пузырь формирующихся рыночных экономик

ЛОНДОН – Что-то ужасное произошло с развивающимися экономиками, которые должны были формировать и даже доминировать будущее нашего мира. Уже ведется поиск виновных факторов: цены на сырьевые товары, «fracking», Эль-Ниньо, Китай, процентные ставки в США…пока самыми виновными кажутся эти причины. Но ответ является более простым и традиционным. Во всем виновата политика.

Посмотрите на Бразилию. Это экономика, которой когда то предсказывали прочный бум в будущем, но она едва ли росла более чем на два года, а в настоящее время и вовсе сокращается. Падение цен на товары сырьевого экспорта конечно не помогли, но экономика Бразилии должна была представлять собой больше, чем урожаи и добывающая промышленность.

Или посмотрите на Индонезию. Эта экономика по-прежнему растет, но в размере (4,7% в год в последнем квартале) который разочаровывает как в плане предыдущих ожиданий, так и роста численности населения. То же самое можно сказать и о Турции, где рост достиг мизерных 2,3% в последнем квартале, что, по крайней мере бьет рост населения, но все равно остается скудным по сравнению с пиковыми годами страны: 2010 и 2011 гг., когда он вырос до 9%. Или Южная Африка, где экономический прогресс постоянно был слишком медленным, что в годы бума золота и других ресурсов, что во время рецессий, чтобы сделать любые действительные изменения в уровнях бедности.

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