India flood  house submerged Prabhat Kumar Verma/ZumaPress

新兴市场大泡沫

伦敦—人们认为将会影响甚至主导世界未来的新兴经济体发生了非常严重的问题。目前正在寻找罪魁:大宗商品价格、液压致裂法、美国利率、厄尔尼诺、中国都是热门。但答案其实更加简单,也更加传统,那就是政治。

以巴西为例。这个曾经似乎已经走上永续繁荣的经济体两年多来现有增长,目前更是陷入了衰退。大宗商品出口价格的下跌绝非福音,但巴西经济应该绝不仅限于收成和炼制产业。

再看看印度尼西亚。印尼经济仍在扩张,但增长率——上季度年化增长率4.7%——与此前的预期和人口增长率相比相当令人失望。土耳其也是如此,上季度增长率下降至2.3%——总算胜过了人口增长率,但与2010年和2011年的突飞猛进(增长率高达9%)相比显得相当疲软。南非亦然,其经济进步一直过于缓慢,不管是在黄金和其他资源的繁荣期还是萧条期,减贫方面也几无进展。

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