India flood  house submerged Prabhat Kumar Verma/ZumaPress

الفقاعة الكبيرة للاسواق الناشئة

لندن- لقد حدث خطأ كبير في الاقتصادات الناشئة والتي كان من المفترض ان تشكل مستقبل العالم وتهمين عليه . ان البحث جاري حاليا عن المتسببين بذلك أي اسعار البضائع وتقنية التكسير الهيدروليكي "الفراكنج" واسعار الفائدة الامريكة وظاهرة النينو والصين علما ان هذه العوامل وغيرها تأتي في الطليعة ولكن الجواب اكثر بساطة وتقليديه وهو يتمثل بالسياسة.

لو نظرنا للبرازيل لوجدنا ان الاقتصاد هناك والذي كان من المتوقع ان يبقى في ازدهار دائم بالكاد حقق نمو لفترة تزيد عن عامين وهو الان يتقلص . ان انخفاض اسعار صادرات البضائع البرازيلية كان له تأثير سلبي ولكن كان من المفترض ان يكون الاقتصاد البرازيلي اكثر بكثير من مجرد كونه محاصيل وصناعات استخراجية.

لو نظرنا الى اندونيسيا لوجدنا ان الاقتصاد ما يزال يتوسع ولكن بمعدل 4،7% سنويا في الربع الاخير وهذا مخيب للامال بالنسبة للتوقعات السابقة والنمو السكاني . ان الكلام نفسه ينطبق على تركيا حيث انخفض النمو الى 2،3% في الربع الاخير- وهذا على الاقل يتغلب على النمو السكاني ولكن هذا يعتبر رقما هزيلا مقارنة بالسنوات المزدهرة للبلاد في 2010 و2011 عندما توسع الاقتصاد بنسبة 9% . أما جنوب افريقيا والتي دائما ما يكون الاقتصاد فيها بطيئا جدا سواء في السنوات المزدهرة للذهب والموارد الاخرى او سنوات الافلاس فلم يحدث ذلك الاقتصاد اي فرق في مستويات الفقر.

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