exchanging currency Then Chih Wey/ZumaPress

新兴市场货币暴动

圣地亚哥—马来西亚、印度尼西亚、南非、土耳其、巴西、哥伦比亚、智利和墨西哥货币最近纷纷创出新低,全世界货币交易者都在问:新兴市场货币要跌到什么时候?

会的这一问题的标准方法是选取一个相对正常的基年,然后测量一国货币自该年以来贬值了多少。然后将这个数字用该国及其贸易伙伴的通货膨胀差异进行调整。如果由此得到的真实汇率与基年相去不远,那么就可以说市场位于均衡,不会产生多少后续贬值。

现在,考虑另一种方法。观察同一国的经常项目赤字,计算需要真实贬值多大幅度(需要做一些关于贸易弹性的假设)方能填补这一外部缺口。如果当前真实贬值已经达到这一阈值,那么就不会产生后续贬值。

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