Economics

新兴市场货币暴动

Aug 24, 2015 Andrés Velasco

圣地亚哥—马来西亚、印度尼西亚、南非、土耳其、巴西、哥伦比亚、智利和墨西哥货币最近纷纷创出新低，全世界货币交易者都在问：新兴市场货币要跌到什么时候？

会的这一问题的标准方法是选取一个相对正常的基年，然后测量一国货币自该年以来贬值了多少。然后将这个数字用该国及其贸易伙伴的通货膨胀差异进行调整。如果由此得到的真实汇率与基年相去不远，那么就可以说市场位于均衡，不会产生多少后续贬值。

现在，考虑另一种方法。观察同一国的经常项目赤字，计算需要真实贬值多大幅度（需要做一些关于贸易弹性的假设）方能填补这一外部缺口。如果当前真实贬值已经达到这一阈值，那么就不会产生后续贬值。

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Andrés Velasco

Writing for PS since 2001
138 Commentaries

Andrés Velasco, a former presidential candidate and finance minister of Chile, is Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He is the author of numerous books and papers on international economics and development, and has served on the faculty at Harvard, Columbia, and New York Universities.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

douglas ungredda Sep 1, 2015

You exposed the portfolio balance theory, where financial flows in the capital account generate a portfolio and income efects in the economy as prices of financial assets move. The initial exchange rate overshooting eventually converges to its approximate PPP equilibrium level. However, the loan mechanism against loal currency collateral as described sounds "eightish" . If this is stilll so, then I am astonished how after all the talk of solvency if banks still entertain lending hard currencies with collateral in weak currency, given its uncertainty on how it might react to sudden market and exchange rate volatility.
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jagjeet sinha Aug 24, 2015

False narratives are being brutally exposed, once the free lunch - unprecedented liquidity, zero bound dollar rates, oil prices halved - is over.
There is such an abundance of data that can reveal trends that can trigger turbulence, that to feign Global Events are the cause, is a charade.
That such charade masks the incompetence spawned by Ruling Coterie, is an anachronism whose days are limited.
Only a handful - that can be counted on your fingers - will pass muster.
Exchange Rates obviously a multivariate model, where the coefficients of discrimination demonstrate explanatory power.
The science of regression analytics unfortunately does not account for deliberate corruption and incompetence.
Estimated Emerging Markets sourced corruption capital ranges into several trillion dollars and more.
The price unfortunately has to be borne by the hapless citizens in the home currency - where ignorance is bliss.
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Jose araujo Aug 24, 2015

I always thought that exchange rates were a function of interest rates... something someone called once interest rate parity...

Interest rates are determined by markets, supply and demand of the currency, so I don't know where the idea of calculating them through inflation comes nor through trade deficits.

Money and Banking 101, guess Mr. Velasco missed them
- Jose araujo Aug 25, 2015
  
  Michael, PPP is a construct an indication.
  
  Floating exchange rates are a function of interest rates, for sure pegged or fixed exchange rates are determined by governments.
  
  Exchange rates are set in the market, demand and supply for the currency, which is also "compensated" in the interest rates markets.
  
  Adds that arbitrage, or the parity axiom will also make exchange rates a function of interest rates, spot or forward.
  
  Now what determines interest rates is a whole different ball game, but the simple IS/LM/BP model will help cast a light.
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- Michael Public Aug 25, 2015
  
  Interest rates or inflation rates are short term adjusters - the reality peg is ppp and the biggest of all things affecting them is sentiment.
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Michael Public Aug 24, 2015

Borrowing in a currency other than the currency your customers (taxpayers) pay you in is asking for serious trouble. If your principal debt doubles in 5 years thanks to currency devaluations you are essentially bankrupt.
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