El problema que representa Europa para los mercados emergentes

PARÍS – De Hong Kong a Sao Paulo hay un tema que predomina sobre todos los demás entre los grandes inversionistas: Grecia. ¿Permanecerán los griegos en la eurozona? ¿Qué le sucederá a la Unión Europea y a la economía global de no ser así?

Hasta hace poco, Europa era una especie de espejo que confirmaba a las principales economías emergentes la naturaleza espectacular de su propio éxito. Podían contrastar sus elevadas tasas de crecimiento con los altos niveles de deuda de Europa. Podían comparar su “energía positiva” con el pesimismo que prevalecía en Europa. Estaban más que dispuestas a recomendar a Europa que trabajara más y gastara menos, a medida que un orgullo legítimo se mezclaba con un comprensible deseo de ajustar cuentas históricas y mitigar los legados de sumisión y humillación colonial.

Sin embargo, actualmente los países emergentes se preocupan cada vez más por lo que, con razón, perciben como el grave riesgo que significa para sus propias economías la excesiva debilidad de Europa, que sigue ocupando el primer lugar mundial en lo que se refiere al comercio. Además, las dificultades de Europa amenazan la estabilidad política de muchos de estos países, dado el vínculo estrecho –sobre todo en China- entre la legitimidad de los acuerdos existentes y la continuación del rápido crecimiento económico.

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