Dean Rohrer

Disruptives Jahrzehnt in den Schwellenmärkten

MADRID: Im vergangenen Jahrzehnt haben sich die Schwellenmärkte zum wichtigsten Wachstumsmotor der Weltwirtschaft entwickelt. Laut HSBC werden sich im Jahre 2050 19 der heutigen Schwellenmarktländer unter den 30 größten Volkswirtschaften der Welt befinden – und wichtiger sein als die heutigen OECD-Länder.

Schon heute entfallen 40% des weltweiten BIP und 37% der weltweiten ausländischen Direktinvestitionen auf die Schwellenmärkte. Und während die OECD-Länder in 2011 weiter stagnierten, verzeichnen die Schwellenmärkte ein starkes Wachstum. China hat dieses Jahr Japan als zweitgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt überholt, und Indien konnte den Rekordbetrag an 80 Milliarden Dollar an ausländischen Direktinvestitionen anlocken – doppelt so viel wie 2010. Petrobras aus Brasilien – schon vorher eines der weltgrößten Ölunternehmen – legte im vergangenen Jahr einen Rekordbörsengang von 67 Milliarden Dollar hin.

Der wachsende Reichtum dieser Volkswirtschaften lockt eine wachsende Zahl multinationaler Konzerne aus OECD-Ländern an. In Asien repräsentiert die Mittelschicht inzwischen 60% der Gesamtbevölkerung (1,9 Milliarden Menschen). China entwickelte sich 2010 zum weltgrößten Automobilmarkt. Der reichste Mensch der Welt stammt aus Mexiko. Und das hohe Wirtschaftswachstum spielt sich in einem Umfeld niedriger Defizite, geringer Schulden und einer unter Kontrolle befindlichen Inflation ab.

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