India children slum school Ritesh Shukla/ZumaPress

回归新兴市场基本面

坎布里奇——经过15年的大肆炒作,新兴市场深陷困境这一新的传统智慧已经站稳了脚跟。许多分析人士曾预测巴西、俄罗斯、土耳其和印度等国未来将维持快速增长,并将其赞誉为世界经济的新引擎。现在几乎上述所有国家都出现了增速放缓,因为美联储今年9月预期加息,投资者正忙着撤出资金。上述国家货币持续下跌,而腐败丑闻和其他政治困难已经在巴西和土耳其等地压倒了经济诉求。

事后看来,多数新兴市场国家显然没有连贯的增长前景。究其原因,你会发现它们的高增速源于需求拉动而非生产率转变,反过来又受到不可持续的公私借贷所带来的暂时商品繁荣的驱动。

的确,新兴市场涌现出许多世界级公司,而且中产阶级的扩张也明白无误。但生产企业仅雇佣了很少一部分劳动力,而非正式的非生产企业则吸纳了大部分工人。

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