bright future Alex Abian/Flickr

新兴市场的未来

伯克利过去几年来,全球经济环境发生了意料之外的巨大变化。能源和大宗商品暴跌。中国的增长(占全球增长的40%左右)下降到1996年以来的最低水平,尽管其股市暴涨至不可持续的高位。美国和欧盟加码对俄制裁,以此作为俄罗斯军事入侵乌克兰的回应,这突显出与跨国投资相关的地缘政治风险。而由于实际或预期的货币政策变化(如美联储),汇率也出现了剧烈波动。<_o3a_p>

<_o3a_p>来势迅猛的变化让全球金融市场措手不及,也吓坏了投资者,降低了他们的风险偏好——在新兴市场已经表现出相当谨慎的态度。投资者开始旁观,追踪新兴市场股市回报的MSCI指数陷入停滞。

<_o3a_p>去年下半年,15个最大的新兴市场经济体经历了2008年全球金融危机以来最大的资本外流。新兴国家外汇储备总量自1994年以来首次出现下降。从1994年开始,新兴市场外汇储备大幅攀升,成为过去二十年来全球经济的一个显著特征。

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