Pesos currency hands Adam Cohn/Flickr

即将到来的新兴市场债务踩踏

圣地亚哥—考虑以下情形。这一情形在新兴市场国家一再上演过。本地银行和企业继续着借贷狂欢,积累了大量美元计价债务——专家们认为这些债务可以完美维持,只要本币保持坚挺。突然间,一些事情(美国利率升高、大宗商品价格下跌、本国政治冲突等)导致本币兑美元贬值。用本币衡量的债务负担大大增加。一些借款人无法偿付利息;另一些借款人无法延期本金。金融损失随之而来。

这就是20世纪80年代拉丁美洲债务危机1994年墨西哥龙舌兰危机1997年亚洲债务危机1998年俄罗斯危机的发生方式。这也是2008—2009年金融危机传染到新兴市场的方式。每一次,借款人和贷款人都宣称汲取了教训。

如今,这一情形不但可能再度发生,其规模也可能比以往大得多。利用发达国家极低利率的条件,新兴市场银行和政府以前所未有的规模借贷。国际清算银行(BIS)的最新报告表明,自全球金融危机爆发以来,美国之外非银行借款人的未偿还美国信用增加了一半,从6万亿美元增至9万亿美元。

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