Buildings reflected in water

Hrozba potápějících se trhů

WASHINGTON, DC – Je na čase dát si vzestup rozvíjejících se ekonomik do souvislostí. Svižný hospodářský růst ve velké části rozvojového světa od počátku století poháněl komoditní boom a přílišné rozšíření úvěrů. Jelikož však boom rozvíjejících se trhů nedoprovázely dostatečné strukturální reformy, nebyl udržitelný.

Dnes už většina předních rozvíjejících se ekonomik zažívá bolestný zvrat štěstěny. Rusko a Brazílie se propadly do vážných krizí, při nichž loni dvoucifernou inflaci doprovodilo 4% smrštění HDP. Jižní Afrika sotva roste. Fenomenální tempo čínské expanze zpomalilo pod 7 %. Není divu, že Goldman Sachs uzavřela svůj ztrátový fond BRIC pro investice do Brazílie, Ruska, Indie a Číny.

Budoucnost BRICS (včetně Jižní Afriky), jakož i dalších rozvíjejících se trhů, skutečně vypadá chmurně. Většina rozvíjejících se ekonomik mimo Asii v prvé řadě vyváží komodity, a je tedy velice citlivá na cenové šoky. Propadající se ceny ropy srazily ruský rubl oproti americkému dolaru o víc než polovinu a další poklesy se jeví jako pravděpodobné – zejména vytrvá-li Federální rezervní úřad USA ve zvyšování úrokových sazeb.

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