Buildings reflected in water

淹没市场的威胁

华盛顿—是时候正确地审视新兴经济体的崛起了。自世纪之交以来,发展中世界大部分国家经济高速增长,其背后是大宗商品繁荣和信用扩张过度。但是,由于新兴市场繁荣没有伴随充分的结构改革,因此是不可持续的。

如今,大部分主要新兴经济体都经历了财富的严重逆转。俄罗斯和巴西陷入严重危机,通胀达到两位数,同时去年GDP萎缩4%。南非几乎没有增长。中国的现象级扩张速度已经放缓至7%以下。毫不奇怪,高盛已经关闭了亏损的投资于巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国的金砖四国基金。

事实上,未来金砖国家(也包括南非)——以及其他新兴市场——前景堪忧。在亚洲之外,大部分发展中经济体大多为大宗商品出口国,因此极易受到价格冲击影响。暴跌的油价导致俄罗斯卢布兑美元贬值超过一半,未来有可能继续贬值——特别是如果美联储继续提高利率的话。

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