World Bank president with Narendra Modi, president of India World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr

S'échapper de la Banque mondiale

PHILADELPHIE – Les sujets brûlants durant la réunion annuelle du Fonds Monétaire International et de la Banque mondiale à Lima au Pérou, concernaient l'Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) inspirée par la Chine et la Nouvelle Banque de Développement (ou la « Banque de Développement des BRICS, » selon sa première dénomination). Ces nouvelles institutions vont-elles se comporter comme la Banque mondiale ou bien vont-elles adopter un comportement plus « classique » comme la Banque européenne d'investissement (BEI) ? Mais surtout, seront-elles autant de véhicules pour favoriser (ou paradoxalement pour contraindre), les intérêts de la Chine ?

La réalité est que durant la prochaine décennie, ces nouvelles institutions ne seront pas des prêteurs énormes. Le capital versé par chacune d'elle est de 10 milliards de dollars. Donc même avec un ratio mise de fonds/prêts de 20% (le plancher actuel de la Banque mondiale), chacune sera en mesure de prêter seulement environ 50 milliards de dollars durant la prochaine décennie, à moins qu'elles n'amassent une quantité conséquente d'investissements privés. Ce qui importe, c'est que les grands marchés émergents placent des quantités considérables de capitaux dans des institutions qui seront dominées par la Chine : une indication de leur degré de frustration à l'égard de la Banque mondiale et du FMI.

La Banque mondiale est comme un vieux navire : au bout de sept décennies, toutes sortes de barnacles (rélutions budgétaires et coûts de transaction), se sont accumulées sur sa coque, en diminuant constamment sa vitesse et son efficacité. Au cours de l'exercice 2015, la BEI a prêté plus de deux fois le montant prêté par la Banque, avec seulement un sixième de son effectif. Si l'on mesure les flux (décaissements de prêts) ou le stock (encours), la Banque mondiale a un excédent d'effectif massif, avec un budget administratif beaucoup plus élevé que celui de la BEI.

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