El desafío demográfico de las economías emergentes

WASHINGTON, DC – Se suele decir que la población que envejece es un desafío económico importante para el mundo desarrollado. Pero un nuevo informe del McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) revela que la demografía cambiante plantea una amenaza aún mayor para las perspectivas de crecimiento de muchas economías emergentes.

En los últimos 50 años, el crecimiento del 1,6% anual de la población fomentó una creciente fuerza laboral y un rápido incremento del PIB en muchas economías emergentes. El empleo cuando menos de duplicó en China y Sudáfrica, y como mínimo se triplicó en Brasil, India, Indonesia, México y Nigeria. En Arabia Saudita, por su parte, el empleo aumentó casi nueve meses.

Sin embargo, frente a la desaceleración del crecimiento de la población, se espera que el crecimiento anual promedio del empleo en las economías emergentes caiga de 1,9% a 0,4%. En términos absolutos, la caída superará la de las economías desarrolladas, donde se espera que el crecimiento anual del empleo caiga del 0,9% al 0,1% en los próximos años. En la mayoría de las economías, se estima que el empleo alcanzará su pico en los próximos 50 años; en China, la fuerza laboral podría reducirse un 20% en este período.

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